I've been having sleeping troubles for the last two weeks. Some days I can't sleep at all, other's I can't wake up.
Dow Jones back to Pre-Bush levels (Mccain is acting like the Iraqi Info Minister)
- Thread starter TseTse
- Start date
I've been having sleeping troubles for the last two weeks. Some days I can't sleep at all, other's I can't wake up.
Tantric Rex
Veteran XV
It was just an example. I chose it because it was the first I saw with black and hispanics voting for Mccain.
But we can always choose from the other 30 or more states with Mccain leading.
This was the guy (Obama) who was supposed to win in a landslide and he is doing miserably in most states except for the ones that are blue each election.
If Palin is such an idiot and Mccain is such dumb old man why is Obama doing so bad in so many states?
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Tantric Rex
Veteran XV
I'd like to watch her tan
because people like yourself are such blind partisans that the facts dont really matter?
just a thought.
then again... you expect obama to "pull the race card" and will likely use that explanation if he wins, right?
I bet Sarah and Bristol tan naked together.
Again, it's a bad poll put out by a poor polling group, look at the cross-tabs put out by others like the SUSA you pasted and you'll see McCain get about 4% of African Americans.
The number of hispanics registered in the state is so small btw that you can't actually get a statistically significant result in a poll, there are 4.8 million active voters and only about 50k active hispanic voters. In a poll of even 1000 voters you would only have 10 hispanics polled which means that the standard error would be fucking huge.
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Tantric Rex
Veteran XV
because people like yourself are such blind partisans that the facts dont really matter?
just a thought.
then again... you expect obama to "pull the race card" and will likely use that explanation if he wins, right?
I'm not partisan, I dont really like Mccain and I cant stand Bush. I think Bush is an idiot but if you think we are in this mess solely from Bush with out Clintons help then you are not as smart as you like to pretend you are.
Its funny out all of your threads there hasnt been one on the money that Obama took from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Him and Dodd having taken the most.
There hasnt been threads on his dealings with Rezko.
There hasnt been one about the Bill Ayers and his association with Obama
There hasnt been one about his association with radical groups like Black Panthers and Acorn
There have been no threads on Obama's "where he opposed a bill similar to the Born-Alive Infants Protection Act, which prevents the killing of infants mistakenly left alive by abortion".
They take the infant after it lives through an abortion and stick in on a closet shelf and it dies from neglect.
And the list goes on.
Who is partisan? Lets see some of those threads.
You are so caught in the bullshit you wont see both sides.
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I honestly no longer trust any of these polls.
After Gallup admitted their method was biased towards Mccain, and after some pollsters posted analysis indicating that many polls were over-samping GOP'rs still, and after all the questions about bradley effects... with state polls showing such absurd disparities... i think it's safe to say that there are dynamics going on which make confidence in these polls very iffy.
In the end, turn-out is what matters.
After Gallup admitted their method was biased towards Mccain, and after some pollsters posted analysis indicating that many polls were over-samping GOP'rs still, and after all the questions about bradley effects... with state polls showing such absurd disparities... i think it's safe to say that there are dynamics going on which make confidence in these polls very iffy.
In the end, turn-out is what matters.
I count only about 25 states where McCain has a truly comfortable lead, totalling about 227 EVs.
Why do you think being an idiot and being popular are mutually exclusive?
You mean like how the vast majority of mortgages since the 1930s have support from fannie mae?
As for being partisan, i respect your point.
You certainly sound defensive of mccain, but perhaps i misunderstood your comments. Personally, i dont make threads about Obama because i dont much care about Obama. I'm not pro-Obama as much as i'm anti-Mccain right now. I confess.
I'd personally like to write in Bloomberg/Hagel.
Tantric Rex
Veteran XV
ok 25 instead of 30. You got me.
It's pretty funny how all these news sites and poll tracking sites all cherry pick polls to use.
Pollster leaves the electoral map fairly open, rather than calling states so easily.
Pollster.com - Political Poll Trends, Charts and Analysis
I think the pollsters are struggling more than ever before. I think Obama will maintain a small lead over Mccain for most of the next 2 months and yet Mccain will stay close in terms of electotal margins. We're likely to see surprises on Nov 4th driven by raw turn out. Obama is ahead in terms of registering voters and raw energy, but the GOP have orchestrated like 100 ballot initiatives in swing states designed to get "social conservatives" out.
If you had to predict the election now, who do you think will win? Obama by landslide? McCain edges out the win?
C
Chavey
Guest
Cause conservatism has done so well over the last 8 years?
I don't mind people being conservatives...
But being blind, deaf, and dumb to everything the conservatives have fucked up since 2000 takes incredible skill.
Spoiler
awww, so much hate from the fuckface crowd.
Obama in a tight race and from strong turn-out in a few swing states. Maybe a blow out, but i doubt it.
I think the polling methods are inflating Mccain's numbers by assuming usual voting patterns and going after "likely voters" rather than very wide surveys of registered voters. Likewise, i think there's a reverse-bradley effect among undecideds where many will swing obama's way come nov 4. This goes particularly for married white females.
Finally, i think Obama's strength as we saw in the primaries is to stir up local voting capacity and he's already breaking records for voter registration. On the other hand, Mccain's support is very shallow and the Palin burst of excitement is bullshit.
57% of white evangelicals considered themselves "strong" supporters of Bush 4 years ago, compared to only 28% for Mccain right now. The energy isn't there. Unless people get motivated by the ballot initiatives or by raw emotional hate for Obama, i just dont see Mccain having the turn-out on Nov 4 regardless of the polls. At least not across the board.
We'll see.
A lot can happen between now and Nov 4, including major fuck-ups by Obama or major world events which turn things Mccain's way (i.e. national security). Mccain could also do very well in debates, if he goes heavily into centrist arguments and stays on message. I've lost faith in him, tho...
Obama in a tight race and from strong turn-out in a few swing states. Maybe a blow out, but i doubt it.
I think the polling methods are inflating Mccain's numbers by assuming usual voting patterns and going after "likely voters" rather than very wide surveys of registered voters. Likewise, i think there's a reverse-bradley effect among undecideds where many will swing obama's way come nov 4. This goes particularly for married white females.
Finally, i think Obama's strength as we saw in the primaries is to stir up local voting capacity and he's already breaking records for voter registration. On the other hand, Mccain's support is very shallow and the Palin burst of excitement is bullshit.
57% of white evangelicals considered themselves "strong" supporters of Bush 4 years ago, compared to only 28% for Mccain right now. The energy isn't there. Unless people get motivated by the ballot initiatives or by raw emotional hate for Obama, i just dont see Mccain having the turn-out on Nov 4 regardless of the polls. At least not across the board.
We'll see.
A lot can happen between now and Nov 4, including major fuck-ups by Obama or major world events which turn things Mccain's way (i.e. national security). Mccain could also do very well in debates, if he goes heavily into centrist arguments and stays on message. I've lost faith in him, tho...
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Tantric Rex
Veteran XV
awww, so much hate from the fuckface crowd.
Obama in a tight race and from strong turn-out in a few swing states. Maybe a blow out, but i doubt it.
I think the polling methods are inflating Mccain's numbers by assuming usual voting patterns and going after "likely voters" rather than very wide surveys of registered voters. Likewise, i think there's a reverse-bradley effect among undecideds where many will swing obama's way come nov 4. This goes particularly for married white females.
Finally, i think Obama's strength as we saw in the primaries is to stir up local voting capacity and he's already breaking records for voter registration. On the other hand, Mccain's support is very shallow and the Palin burst of excitement is bullshit.
57% of white evangelicals considered themselves "strong" supporters of Bush 4 years ago, compared to only 28% for Mccain right now. The energy isn't there. Unless people get motivated by the ballot initiatives or by raw emotional hate for Obama, i just dont see Mccain having the turn-out on Nov 4 regardless of the polls. At least not across the board.
We'll see.
A lot can happen between now and Nov 4, including major fuck-ups by Obama or major world events which turn things Mccain's way (i.e. national security). Mccain could also do very well in debates, if he goes heavily into centrist arguments and stays on message. I've lost faith in him, tho...
Obama is gonna lose.
The more the democrats attack Palin and the more Obama starts the attack ads and gets aways from the whole "Hope and Change" platform the better it is for Republicans.
They were attacking Mccain for not using email and then it backfired because they found he was not able to because he was wounded in the war hurt his arms to type. Now they are attacking Rush Limbaugh in New Mexico over some immigrant stuff taken out of context and its backfiring on them.
Democrats have been running with this "Obama is a rock star" campaign and avoiding issues for the last year. Now the republicans have someone that gets attention and is stirring their base up;now the democrats want to talk about the issues again.
Obama is all for Hope and Change until he starts slipping in the polls.