So there's a hurricane out in the Atlantic churning towards the US. It's still many days away and may completely miss the US. However, there's some model agreement on a possible US landfall, the location is unknown, but areas from Florida up the east coast would be in danger.
The latest model runs from last night seem to like the South Carolina/North Carolina area for landfall, however that will probably change many times over the next few days.
It's going to depend on timing of a trough of low pressure crossing the US. It's possible it picks Irma up and takes it with it, but it's also possible that it's too fast and misses Irma, which allows high pressure to build in which steers Irma into the US coast. A third option would be something like what happened during Sandy where it captured the storm.
The intensity guidance generally keeps it as a Cat3/Cat4 storm through the end of the run.
Below are model tracks that will update as time goes on:
12z (updates in the morning):
00z (updates in the evening/night):
Track updates:
The latest model runs from last night seem to like the South Carolina/North Carolina area for landfall, however that will probably change many times over the next few days.
It's going to depend on timing of a trough of low pressure crossing the US. It's possible it picks Irma up and takes it with it, but it's also possible that it's too fast and misses Irma, which allows high pressure to build in which steers Irma into the US coast. A third option would be something like what happened during Sandy where it captured the storm.
The intensity guidance generally keeps it as a Cat3/Cat4 storm through the end of the run.
Below are model tracks that will update as time goes on:
12z (updates in the morning):
00z (updates in the evening/night):
Track updates:
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