just asking if you have a story/article about a person who transitioned to play sports and then transitioned back. this is what i ended up looking at:
Transgender people in sports - Wikipedia
nothing really stands out except that it's been going on since 1977 with renee richards. so the door has been open for at least that long. it puts the recent weightlifting wins in the context of decades of the occasional transwoman attempting to compete and losing. to me this argues against the likelihood of trans-to-win, since that strat has been available for 40+ years and at best produced two weightlifting champs and an ok mma fighter. check out this one
Lauren Jeska - Wikipedia
if the theory is that a mediocre man with zero integrity could transition and easily dominate, that's presumably millions of dollars on the line, right? and in 40 years of this being permitted in (at least) tennis, no one has jumped on it? that's a pretty big $20 bill on the sidewalk. maybe it's really not that easy, or not that appealing, or people aren't that depraved (def not this).
that leaves base odds, where transpeople are less than 1 in 100, pro/pseudopro athletes (i.e. paid college or sponsored olympic) are probably <10k in 350mil, cross those for a very small rate (3 for every 1mil if my head math is right). based on order of magnitude and the historical record i'd predict a transperson will come along once every few years and compete in a pro/pseudopro sport. if one shows up in individual sports slated heavily toward build / strength (running, fighting, lifting) they may do very well (and this will increase the odds they show up in these sports, since competitiveness is a filter). during their time they will be alone or nearly alone as transpeople in (this) sport, while 99% of the competition continues to occur between natural born women. that's what i'd bet
after the one-time uptick we are presently experiencing due to wider trans popularity, assuming no bans.
this turned into a painful effort post bc after looking at the evidence, i've actually changed my mind from believing this should be banned to believing it doesn't really matter. if my predictions are substantially off and there is a major uptick of trans competitors, say more than 10% of female world record holders or 5% of any given pro league, i would update in favor of a ban. i feel like if your steepest hardship is that you may never set a world record or be the single best player of your sport, you're alright. i agree it's unfair, but we all lose sooner or later.
tl;dr:
- trans in sports was backed by the usgov in 1977
- there were plenty of translosers between 1977 and fallon fox
- these two recent lifters are the only ones ever to set world records (and one was already beat)
- raw odds suggest ongoing <1% trans in sports
- was pro-ban, now pro-tran
- if you want to win fair and square you already lost to the juicers so a lone tranno on top doesn't really change things. white people still play golf even though tiger woods exists.