The Economy - share interesting info

T

TseTse

Veteran X
(cliffs = the charts)

Paging Kizzak and crew... there are so many dimensions to this economic down-turn, that sometimes just sharing cool charts or single factoids can help bring light to aspects of them.

Comments? Things to add?

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This is the really creepy chart. :scared:

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For those curious, the chart ends at the lowest points for those other crises although obviously the current line is open-ended, albeit the DJI has been fairly flat for a month and a half. Has Wall St bottomed out?

Any good news?

Major economic powers are agreeing to put a freeze on any new trade restrictions.

Leaders of the 21 economies in APEC, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, hit the right notes when they issued a statement during their summit in Lima, Peru, last weekend. To counter calls to shield countries and industries from competition by restricting imports, the APEC leaders, who oversee half the world's economic activity, said that in the next 12 months they would not raise new barriers to investment or to trade in goods and services, impose new export restrictions, or implement measures inconsistent with the World Trade Organisation, including those that stimulate exports.
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Along those lines... some interesting things about china.

Unemployment is low and expected to stay somewhat low. GDP growth may drop, but most are predicting the Chinese economy to plug away at 5-9% or more. The shit would hit the fan if they really crashed. Could that happen in 2009?
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And china is talking about not only holding tight to US Treasuries, but perhaps buying MORE. Interesting. I wonder what the US might be doing to help prop up China in return...

Vice central bank governor Yi Gang said earlier this month that Beijing would not resort to "panic selling" but would maintain a "prudent and responsible" stance in managing its foreign exchange reserves.

Investment bank China International Capital Corp went so far recently as to suggest that China should buy more Treasuries now to help fund the bailout of U.S. banks and should do so before other countries to benefit from the rise in bond prices.
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A report Thursday in the China Daily quoted U.S. Treasury Department figures showing China replaced Japan in September as the top holder of U.S. debt with $585 billion, compared to Japan's $573 billion.
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Are we seeing something akin to a new 21st century Bretton Woods system where basically all the great super-powers can tweak globalization mechanisms to maintain some financial "base" by just investing in debt? Can this be sustained? I mean... we have 2 super powers effectively propping each other up... one being the foremost communist nation and one being the foremost capitalist nation. That must be making the old school 19th century ideologues roll in their graves.

Is the US Dollar going to come out of this crisis more valuable and important than ever before? Is this dependent on the oil markets and oil production staying the same?

It seems to me that a lot of the political dynamics and conflicts right now are being driven dramatically by the combination of US Dollar hegemony and the politics of oil production. Everything from global terrorism to debt financing to Dollar stability seem tied to oil politics in one way or another. With the current economic crash, we could see things boil over in many nations, for better or worse. Regimes like Venezuela and Iran rely heavily on oil revenue and are being crushed by $55 barrels of oil.

But if our own ability to keep things stable requires stability of oil production, then... when is the world going to publicly "peak oil"? Are we ever going to get ahead of this looming crisis? :scared:

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Even if we find new oil reserves in greenland or the deep sea, this underlying problem is looming. We've built the modern world around a resource we're basically going to start significantly running out of in the coming decades... (if not already)
 
so, what do you think we need to do TseTse? What's your plan, other than screaming "the sky is falling", there's plenty of that going around already.
 
Yankee said:
so, what do you think we need to do TseTse? What's your plan, other than screaming "the sky is falling", there's plenty of that going around already.
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i dont fucking know. i have theories tho.

if you read what you are replying to... you'd see it's filled with good news too. however, the sky really IS falling in terms of the reality of peak oil.

1. perhaps some better way to spread nuclear technology? perhaps we oughta call Iran and Venezuela's bluff, and start supporting a new means for nations to build safe civilian nuclear power (which fucks them since they rely on oil sales).

2. a 20 year plan to dramatically cut US federal, state and local government gas consumption to be combined with supports for industrial transition

regardless of our future lot as a superpower, we need to get ahead of the inevitable... predictable... coming peak oil crisis where the world increasingly fights over SHRINKING oil reserves.
 
Ummm moving our economy to Natural Gas and eventually fuel cells. Fuck nuclear power for everyone it's not a right, especially countries that believe MAD is a good thing.
 
TseTse said:
i dont fucking know. i have theories tho.

if you read what you are replying to... you'd see it's filled with good news too. however, the sky really IS falling in terms of the reality of peak oil.

1. perhaps some better way to spread nuclear technology? perhaps we oughta call Iran and Venezuela's bluff, and start supporting a new means for nations to build safe civilian nuclear power (which fucks them since they rely on oil sales).

2. a 20 year plan to dramatically cut US federal, state and local government gas consumption to be combined with supports for industrial transition

regardless of our future lot as a superpower, we need to get ahead of the inevitable... predictable... coming peak oil crisis where the world increasingly fights over SHRINKING oil reserves.
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if gas continues to be cheap, people will continue to not care about the oil situation.

i think the government should tax gas more.... for a couple of reasons.

i say put like a $2-3 dollar tax on every gallon of gas. This will keep people pissed about gas, and hopefully pissed enough to actually do something about it, like get a more fuel efficient car, or a moped.

also it will give the alternative fuel market a more stable price point to try and compete with. I can't imagine trying to develop a new product and work it out so that its economically competitive, except that the product i'm trying to compete against keeps changing its price every day.

also the government should use all of this new tax money to develop ways to get us off oil dependence.



i realize that cheap fuel prices are the one thing thats actually helping the economic situations these days for americans.... so perhaps now would not be the right time to do something like this. BUT i've been saying they should do this since last year... when the economy wasn't so shitty.

so maybe after the economy recovers, idk. :shrug:

or i could just be way off base all together, who knows.
 
Bibble said:
if gas continues to be cheap, people will continue to not care about the oil situation.

i think the government should tax gas more.... for a couple of reasons.

i say put like a $2-3 dollar tax on every gallon of gas. This will keep people pissed about gas, and hopefully pissed enough to actually do something about it, like get a more fuel efficient car, or a moped.

also it will give the alternative fuel market a more stable price point to try and compete with. I can't imagine trying to develop a new product and work it out so that its economically competitive, except that the product i'm trying to compete against keeps changing its price every day.

also the government should use all of this new tax money to develop ways to get us off oil dependence.

i realize that cheap fuel prices are the one thing thats actually helping the economic situations these days for americans.... so perhaps now would not be the right time to do something like this. BUT i've been saying they should do this since last year... when the economy wasn't so shitty.

so maybe after the economy recovers, idk. :shrug:

or i could just be way off base all together, who knows.
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The current gas prices wont stay... even during a greater recession. :ugh:

I agree with the point about gas taxes. Fiscal conservatives have been arguing for this for years (at least those who look long-term). I dont see that being politically viable until the economy looks to be growing strong again.

As for people "not caring," i disagree. I think the last year really slapped americans in the face. Even with low prices, americans apparently have not increased their consumption. The bigger issue, tho, is industrial use.

Most of our gas consumption is by government and industry... not personal consumption. That's why i think the govt needs to LEAD on this, by massively MASSIVELY moving with a 20 year plan to support local governments moving away from gas as best they can. This also has huge implications for the military...
 
TseTse said:
The current gas prices wont stay... even during a greater recession. :ugh:

I agree with the point about gas taxes. Fiscal conservatives have been arguing for this for years (at least those who look long-term). I dont see that being politically viable until the economy looks to be growing strong again.

As for people "not caring," i disagree. I think the last year really slapped americans in the face. Even with low prices, americans apparently have not increased their consumption. The bigger issue, tho, is industrial use.

Most of our gas consumption is by government and industry... not personal consumption. That's why i think the govt needs to LEAD on this, by massively MASSIVELY moving with a 20 year plan to support local governments moving away from gas as best they can. This also has huge implications for the military...
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it still amazes me that many years ago a guy sat down and built the first internal combustion engine. It was awesome, and changed everything.

yet over 100 years later, after everything we've accomplished in the last century (achieving flight, going to the moon, computers, the internet, you name it) after all that, we STILL cannot come up with a viable alternative to this antiquated means of propelling our automobiles.

i realize its not really a question of not being able to, and more of a question of money and people not WANTING to... but goddamn. are you kidding me?

we could send a man to mars if we wanted to, but we can't seem to come up with any new way of making our cars move.
 
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TseTse said:
Maker: Tata Motors (india)
Cost: $2300 US
Efficiency: 51.7 mpg
Top Speed: 68 mph

12 inch wheels :sunny:

Is this the future? What impact if any will uber-cheap cars like this have?
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we won't see many cars like that in america simply because they don't meet our safety standards.

but I want one of these :D




except :lol: at the part at the end where the narrator suggest that it could be a perpetual motion machine. credibility - -
 
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Bibble said:
we won't see many cars like that in america simply because they don't meet our safety standards.

but I want one of these :lol:

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Sure, but as the world moves in this direction i can see more sub-$10,000 cars and hybrids. i dont see how the market cannot shift fairly hilariously in this direction in the coming 10+ years.



ps. this compressed air thing seems iffy.

saying it costs nothing is dishonest. one way or another you need compression. they're sitting there pumping compressed air in with a small generator. :lol:
 
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Interesting information:

The dollar is doing better in the exchange rate vs the Euro, Won, and Lita now than it has done in a few years (afaik). I'm only going off the places I've lived/worked in the past two years.

Euro: Up $0.10 since Jun 2008
Won: Up $0.40 since May 2008
Lita: Up $0.25 since Sep 2008
 
TseTse said:
Sure, but as the world moves in this direction i can see more sub-$10,000 cars and hybrids. i dont see how the market cannot shift fairly hilariously in this direction in the coming 10+ years.



ps. this compressed air thing seems iffy.

saying it costs nothing is dishonest. one way or another you need compression. they're sitting there pumping compressed air in with a small generator. :lol:
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yeah... i know that part is dumb... you still need electricity somehow, and thats not just magic.

its kind of like saying that a car is truly 'green' when i'm sure the factory that it was made in wasn't some solar/wind powered hippy commune.
 
Archaic said:
Interesting information:

The dollar is doing better in the exchange rate vs the Euro, Won, and Lita now than it has done in a few years (afaik). I'm only going off the places I've lived/worked in the past two years.

Euro: Up $0.10 since Jun 2008
Won: Up $0.40 since May 2008
Lita: Up $0.25 since Sep 2008
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Ya, ironically, the dollar has been stabilizing and growing strong in the last 6 months. I suspect it is a reverse correlation to oil prices shifting and confidence in how the US was handling the credit crisis. Basically, the US Treasuries and other ultra-secure options remain viable. Go figure.
 
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