GroundZero333 said:
absolutely wont happen, bb will not draft a rb first round this year, it will be dillon and faulk next year, line issues will be addressed and holes will be opened for a healthy dillon to hopefully show he still has something left. probably next year will be a big rb signing. this year it will be a lb/safety/o line/ wr pick up
Apparently you didn't see the scrubs NE was forced to put in when Dillon was injured. If anything, Patrick Pass and Heath Evans out performed Kevin Faulk when they had their opportunities, and that's not really a good thing.
Actually, New England's problem is almost the opposite of the Eagles'. They've got a good power runner in Dillon but little else behind him. I don't think they're going to completely replace him until at least after next season, as he still played well this year when he was in. Don't let that 3.9 ypc fool you, Dillon had a high running success rate (not to mention New England ran up the middle a good deal more than the league average).
btw, a quick lesson on running success rate: It takes the down and distance situation when a RB is called to run the ball and then assigns a "hit" or "miss" for the play
* In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down [and 100% on fourth down].
* If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
* If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.
The number of hits is divided by the total number of runs by the RB and that gives you a percentage. This percentage is the running back's success rate. It's similar to batting average or, better yet, the on base percentage stat in baseball
Dillon is still an effective back, but he doesn't have breakaway speed anymore. New England was 31st in the league in percentage of runs over 10 yards. That's actually a stat that measures more the breakaway ability of the team's backs and less the line, as you give the line credit for the first 10 yards only (if they make a 20 yard run, chances are the line wasn't 15-20 yards down field). It's an imperfect stat because it does not take into account TE's and WR's, but never the less it's a useful tool. Interestingly enough, the team with the lowest percent of running plays that were 10 yards or more was Indianapolis, but Edgerrin James had the highest success rate in the NFL. So to be an effective running back in the NFL, you have to be able to advance the football consistantly, not just break off long runs here and there. For comparative purposes, Philadelphia had the 10th highest percentage of runs of 10 yards or greater.
It's hard to judge New England's offensive line when you factor in that they lost arguably their best lineman, Matt Light, to injury early in the season and that they were starting a rookie in his place and at guard. There was hardly any depth behind Dillon, but Patrick Pass and Heath Evans (a FB picked up off waivers halfway through the season) played well when given the chance behind the line. Despite attempting the 7th highest number of passes in the league, they had the 6th best sack rate (pass att/sack given up). I don't think New England's offense was meant to be a passing team, it just came about by necessity due to the personnel at RB.
Defense is the Patriots' biggest weakness heading into the offseason. As I said before, I think Dillon still has at least another good year left in him. Rodney Harrison should be back next year, but he's going to be 34 and is coming off a bad injury, so who knows what his role is going to be. They need players at every position, but most notabely DB's. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats took a guy like Ko Simpson or Tye Hill or traded down for more picks. But as I stated in my original post, right now I'm mainly just basing the mock draft on the best player available theory if said player fits into any of the team's needs.