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Veteran XV
Bearcats need healthy Guidugli
By Tony Granieri
Scouts Inc.
The Thundering Herd will square off against Cincinnati in the postseason for the second time in four years. The two schools first met in the 2000 Motor City Bowl, with Marshall emerging as the 25-14 winner. Marshall boasts a 5-2 all-time record in bowl games and will be making its seventh bowl appearance in the last eight seasons.
PlainsCapital Fort Worth
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Who: Cincinnati vs. Marshall
When: Thurs., Dec. 23, 6:30 ET (ESPN)
Where: Fort Worth, Texas
Cincinnati rallied from a 2-4 start to earn the required six wins for a postseason berth. This will be the Bearcats' fourth bowl appearance in the past five seasons and their last as a member of Conference USA, as they will call the Big East home next year.
When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincinnati run offense vs. Marshall run defense
Everything the Bearcats do offensively will be based on the health of senior QB Gino Guidugli, who is recovering from a broken hand. If Guidugli is 100 percent, the running game will take a backseat.
If Guidugli is limited, the Bearcats will ask RB Richard Hall to shoulder more of the offensive load. Hall is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has the size to handle an increased workload, but he has benefited from Guidugli's ability to spread the field. He may struggle without an effective passing game to keep Marshall honest. Making matters worse is the fact that Marshall owns the 14th ranked run defense in the country and is anchored by one of the most athletic back sevens in the MAC.
The player to keep an eye on will be SS Curtis Keyes, who is at his best playing near the line of scrimmage and currently leads the team in tackles. If he's allowed to creep into the box without being tested in the passing game, Hall could be in for a long day.
Advantage: Marshall
Cincinnati pass offense vs. Marshall pass defense
The Bearcats hope that Guidugli will be healthy enough to play and continues throwing the ball with the same kind of efficiency he showed prior to his injury. In his last five games, Guidugli has been on fire, completing nearly 69 percent of his passes for 18 touchdowns and just one interception. The problem is Guidugli broke a bone in his throwing hand. As a result, his timing and accuracy are both likely to suffer.
The worst-case scenario would involve Guidugli pulling up lame, which would force the Bearcats to start the inconsistent Collin Carey for the second week in a row. After watching Carey complete four of his 13 passes for 18 yards against Louisville, it's clear that Cincinnati needs Guidugli under center. Carey hasn't had enough game experience to fully absorb Treadwell's system, which is a huge problem in a scheme that relies on the quarterback. In addition, he lacks the ideal physical tools and is simply not as talented as Guidugli.
Advantage: Draw
When Marshall has the ball
Marshall run offense vs. Cincinnati run defense
Bob Pruett
Bob Pruett has a solid history in bowl games.
The Marshall running game is spearheaded by the productive duo of senior Earl Charles and freshman Ahmad Bradshaw. The two have combined for 1,282 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. While Charles leads the team in rushing and will shoulder most of the load, its Bradshaw's game-breaking speed that should keep the Bearcats off balance.
It will be extremely important that Cincinnati's front seven maintain its gap responsibilities and prevent Bradshaw from hitting the second level at full steam. Staying disciplined will limit the number of big-play opportunities Marshall gets in the running game and place more pressure on QB Stan Hill to carry the offense.
The problem is the Bearcats' run defense is currently ranked 69th in the nation. Cincinnati has missed far too many tackles and that trend isn't likely to change at this point of the season. As a result, Charles and Bradshaw should gain plenty of yards after contact, which will provide Hill with the balance he needs to be successful.
Advantage: Marshall
Marshall pass offense vs. Cincinnati pass defense
Hill shouldn't have too much trouble finding WR Josh Davis, who is one of the most explosive players in the country.. Davis' combination of crisp route-running, athleticism and speed will pose problems for a Cincinnati pass defense that is allowing nearly 15 yards per reception. Davis will also benefit from the presence of speedster Brad Bates who will prevent the Bearcats from rolling their coverage to one-side.
With the running game figuring to have success, both Davis and Bates should face some single coverage. The onus will fall on Hill to capitalize on these situations, as the Thundering Herd cannot afford to miss any scoring chances. This will become even more of an issue if the Bearcats get Guidugli back and are able to move the ball with the same kind of efficiency they showed prior to his injury. The problem for Marshall is Hill has been wildly inconsistent, throwing six interceptions in the last three games. If Cincinnati can get to Hill, and force him to make some mistakes, it may be able to negate the big-play ability of both Davis and Bates.
Advantage: Draw
Special teams
The Bearcats surrendered three special teams' touchdowns to Louisville -- two on blocked punts and a third on a 72-yard punt return. Most of the blame belongs to P Chet Ervin for not getting the ball out of his hands on time and failing to get adequate hangtime on his kicks. However, the coverage team also needs to improve its blocking and tackling. PK Kevin Lovell has connected on eight of his 12 field goal attempts, including a long of 49 yards. The return game has been solid, with Mike Daniels pulling double-duty. Daniels is averaging 11.2 yards per punt return and 18.1 yards per kickoff return.
Marshall's kicking game is one of the best in the MAC. Ian O'Connor handles both the place kicking and punting duties. O'Connor has nailed 14 of his 19 field goal attempts, including a long of 52 yards. He is averaging 40.3 yards per punt. Bradshaw will see time back on kickoffs, but Emanuel Spann gets most of the work as team's return specialist.
Advantage: Southern Miss
Bottom line
The status of Guidugli will go a long way in determining the outcome, but there are several other factors that will have an impact. The Bearcats will be at a disadvantage in several key areas, even if Guidugli starts. Marshall's defense is far more talented and should have an easier time slowing down the Bearcats' offense. This will put pressure on the quarterback for Cincinnati.
On the flip side, the balance that Charles and Bradshaw provide will create some big-play opportunities for Marshall's passing game. If Hill can capitalize, it will put the Bearcats in the precarious situation of having to play from behind. This will further expose Cincinnati's problems at quarterback.
Prediction: Marshall 28, Cincinnati 23
By Tony Granieri
Scouts Inc.
The Thundering Herd will square off against Cincinnati in the postseason for the second time in four years. The two schools first met in the 2000 Motor City Bowl, with Marshall emerging as the 25-14 winner. Marshall boasts a 5-2 all-time record in bowl games and will be making its seventh bowl appearance in the last eight seasons.
PlainsCapital Fort Worth
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
Who: Cincinnati vs. Marshall
When: Thurs., Dec. 23, 6:30 ET (ESPN)
Where: Fort Worth, Texas
Cincinnati rallied from a 2-4 start to earn the required six wins for a postseason berth. This will be the Bearcats' fourth bowl appearance in the past five seasons and their last as a member of Conference USA, as they will call the Big East home next year.
When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincinnati run offense vs. Marshall run defense
Everything the Bearcats do offensively will be based on the health of senior QB Gino Guidugli, who is recovering from a broken hand. If Guidugli is 100 percent, the running game will take a backseat.
If Guidugli is limited, the Bearcats will ask RB Richard Hall to shoulder more of the offensive load. Hall is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has the size to handle an increased workload, but he has benefited from Guidugli's ability to spread the field. He may struggle without an effective passing game to keep Marshall honest. Making matters worse is the fact that Marshall owns the 14th ranked run defense in the country and is anchored by one of the most athletic back sevens in the MAC.
The player to keep an eye on will be SS Curtis Keyes, who is at his best playing near the line of scrimmage and currently leads the team in tackles. If he's allowed to creep into the box without being tested in the passing game, Hall could be in for a long day.
Advantage: Marshall
Cincinnati pass offense vs. Marshall pass defense
The Bearcats hope that Guidugli will be healthy enough to play and continues throwing the ball with the same kind of efficiency he showed prior to his injury. In his last five games, Guidugli has been on fire, completing nearly 69 percent of his passes for 18 touchdowns and just one interception. The problem is Guidugli broke a bone in his throwing hand. As a result, his timing and accuracy are both likely to suffer.
The worst-case scenario would involve Guidugli pulling up lame, which would force the Bearcats to start the inconsistent Collin Carey for the second week in a row. After watching Carey complete four of his 13 passes for 18 yards against Louisville, it's clear that Cincinnati needs Guidugli under center. Carey hasn't had enough game experience to fully absorb Treadwell's system, which is a huge problem in a scheme that relies on the quarterback. In addition, he lacks the ideal physical tools and is simply not as talented as Guidugli.
Advantage: Draw
When Marshall has the ball
Marshall run offense vs. Cincinnati run defense
Bob Pruett
Bob Pruett has a solid history in bowl games.
The Marshall running game is spearheaded by the productive duo of senior Earl Charles and freshman Ahmad Bradshaw. The two have combined for 1,282 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. While Charles leads the team in rushing and will shoulder most of the load, its Bradshaw's game-breaking speed that should keep the Bearcats off balance.
It will be extremely important that Cincinnati's front seven maintain its gap responsibilities and prevent Bradshaw from hitting the second level at full steam. Staying disciplined will limit the number of big-play opportunities Marshall gets in the running game and place more pressure on QB Stan Hill to carry the offense.
The problem is the Bearcats' run defense is currently ranked 69th in the nation. Cincinnati has missed far too many tackles and that trend isn't likely to change at this point of the season. As a result, Charles and Bradshaw should gain plenty of yards after contact, which will provide Hill with the balance he needs to be successful.
Advantage: Marshall
Marshall pass offense vs. Cincinnati pass defense
Hill shouldn't have too much trouble finding WR Josh Davis, who is one of the most explosive players in the country.. Davis' combination of crisp route-running, athleticism and speed will pose problems for a Cincinnati pass defense that is allowing nearly 15 yards per reception. Davis will also benefit from the presence of speedster Brad Bates who will prevent the Bearcats from rolling their coverage to one-side.
With the running game figuring to have success, both Davis and Bates should face some single coverage. The onus will fall on Hill to capitalize on these situations, as the Thundering Herd cannot afford to miss any scoring chances. This will become even more of an issue if the Bearcats get Guidugli back and are able to move the ball with the same kind of efficiency they showed prior to his injury. The problem for Marshall is Hill has been wildly inconsistent, throwing six interceptions in the last three games. If Cincinnati can get to Hill, and force him to make some mistakes, it may be able to negate the big-play ability of both Davis and Bates.
Advantage: Draw
Special teams
The Bearcats surrendered three special teams' touchdowns to Louisville -- two on blocked punts and a third on a 72-yard punt return. Most of the blame belongs to P Chet Ervin for not getting the ball out of his hands on time and failing to get adequate hangtime on his kicks. However, the coverage team also needs to improve its blocking and tackling. PK Kevin Lovell has connected on eight of his 12 field goal attempts, including a long of 49 yards. The return game has been solid, with Mike Daniels pulling double-duty. Daniels is averaging 11.2 yards per punt return and 18.1 yards per kickoff return.
Marshall's kicking game is one of the best in the MAC. Ian O'Connor handles both the place kicking and punting duties. O'Connor has nailed 14 of his 19 field goal attempts, including a long of 52 yards. He is averaging 40.3 yards per punt. Bradshaw will see time back on kickoffs, but Emanuel Spann gets most of the work as team's return specialist.
Advantage: Southern Miss
Bottom line
The status of Guidugli will go a long way in determining the outcome, but there are several other factors that will have an impact. The Bearcats will be at a disadvantage in several key areas, even if Guidugli starts. Marshall's defense is far more talented and should have an easier time slowing down the Bearcats' offense. This will put pressure on the quarterback for Cincinnati.
On the flip side, the balance that Charles and Bradshaw provide will create some big-play opportunities for Marshall's passing game. If Hill can capitalize, it will put the Bearcats in the precarious situation of having to play from behind. This will further expose Cincinnati's problems at quarterback.
Prediction: Marshall 28, Cincinnati 23