excellent info. +rep
2019-nCoV
- Thread starter Skipperlipicus
- Start date
Twit: Harvard scientist tweets: Holy mother of God, this Virus has an Ro of 3.8
@DrEricDing
·
1h
Replying to
@DrEricDing
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...
3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...
6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...
8/ ... SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virusepidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS...
9/ ...cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with...10\ ... possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern worldwith faster
+
than 1918.
@WHO
and
@CDCgov
needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!
Skipperlipicus
Veteran XX
8/ ... SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus
This is false though. SARS Ro was ~3. SARS Ro was reduced to <1 when healthcare workers knew what they were dealing with and had proper isolation techniques in place.
see page 27
yeah there is a well treated Ro value and an untreated Ro value
that is how mortality rate of everything from the black plague to anthrax to the common flu bugs have always been defined. that is part of the intervention aspect of how that actual number is defined.
you need 75% intervention efforts to take a 4 down to a 1 Ro value.
seeing as how they are having a hard enough time properly testing this new novel coronavirus, yet alone treating it, I think we should probably go with the untreated value.
as in there really is no fucking treatment for it. just a confirmation of you having it after you have it.
seeing as how you can carry it for weeks without showing symptoms also a major contributing factor.
we are already getting scares all over the USA for + testings of other known coronavirus (for whooping caugh etc) and the hospitals are trying to say that only the CDC can properly confirm or test for this new version atm. They can't do this in house right now.
let us hope most of these are another form of coronavirus
our normal dirty mexican people disneyland kind and not new chinese bat soup blend
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Chinese researcher escorted from infectious disease lab amid RCMP investigation7
😷Kyle Bass😷 (@Jkylebass) | Twitter
and the plot thickens like chest flem and exuding mucus membranes
😷Kyle Bass😷 (@Jkylebass) | Twitter
and the plot thickens like chest flem and exuding mucus membranes
speaking of intervention
apparently this is big enough deal to quarantine 50+ Million people
for this kind of response
for the USA to evacuate 1000+ of our people and diplmats in an emergency rescue mission from these regions
U.S. Working to Evacuate American Citizens From Epidemic-Stricken Chinese City - WSJ
but not enough to limit travel from China.......I mean sure we can stop them from sending their toxic products and tarrif them for past few years.......but we can't stop their tainted people from coming until this clears up because we are a GDP unit and not a country
I miss 2014 Trump
he had better bullshit to sell us
apparently this is big enough deal to quarantine 50+ Million people
for this kind of response
for the USA to evacuate 1000+ of our people and diplmats in an emergency rescue mission from these regions
U.S. Working to Evacuate American Citizens From Epidemic-Stricken Chinese City - WSJ
but not enough to limit travel from China.......I mean sure we can stop them from sending their toxic products and tarrif them for past few years.......but we can't stop their tainted people from coming until this clears up because we are a GDP unit and not a country
I miss 2014 Trump
he had better bullshit to sell us
i honestly don't care
we could use at least 5% less people on planet
so do your thing crazy snake monkey pig ebola zika plague
we could use at least 5% less people on planet
so do your thing crazy snake monkey pig ebola zika plague
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
Map for confirmed cases/deaths/etc.
The only problem with that is supposedly China has run out of test kits so at this point it will probably be a while before we see any true "confirmed" numbers.
Map for confirmed cases/deaths/etc.
The only problem with that is supposedly China has run out of test kits so at this point it will probably be a while before we see any true "confirmed" numbers.
I made that joke too soon
It is hard to onion these days
so now this virus doesnt like blacks?
lmfao, you cant make this shit up
guess ebola didnt get the memo
i am laughing because they probably are largely immune to it
same as people who already had ebola and survived
i mean bush meat kings
that is a title I will never try to take from them
at some point soon aids will be as natural to them as it is the creatures they first contracted it from
same as people who already had ebola and survived
i mean bush meat kings
that is a title I will never try to take from them
at some point soon aids will be as natural to them as it is the creatures they first contracted it from
oh man but we are all the same
we are the world
all people are 100% identical
yet they want to know what race I am when I go to the doctors
proof that medicine very racist
i will not stop until we live in a world where race is as fluid as gender
white people get sickle cell as well
we are the world
all people are 100% identical
yet they want to know what race I am when I go to the doctors
proof that medicine very racist
i will not stop until we live in a world where race is as fluid as gender
white people get sickle cell as well
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yep
who knew all those 'bacterial killing' soaps would keep us from being slowly exposed and building up immunity
Let your kids eat dirt
Skipperlipicus
Veteran XX
The incubation period for the coronavirus can range from one to 14 days, and the virus is infectious during incubation, which was not the case with SARS.
3rd case in the US confirmed - Orange County, California.
3rd case in the US confirmed - Orange County, California.
