All year, in our Top 100, I have kept tabs on the draft stock of the prospects who might be available for the 2010 NBA draft, based on what scouts and general managers in the league tell me. A consensus gradually forms, and we have a pretty firm idea of how each prospect shapes up at a given time.
In contrast, the mock draft is based more on educated guesses about what specific teams will do. Although we know what teams generally think of prospects, a lot remains unknown.
For starters, we don't know which players might withdraw from the draft by Saturday's deadline. Even when we find out exactly who has stayed in the draft, we won't know in what order the first 14 teams will select.
When we do learn the order, at the May 18 lottery, the draft will still be full of mystery. In the next few weeks, the NBA pre-draft combine in Chicago, the adidas Eurocamp and hundreds of team workouts can dramatically alter player evaluations.
All that said, the draft is beginning to come into focus. We know the lottery odds, we know the top prospects and we know team needs.
So it's time to project the complete first round for the first time. You also can see more than 2,000 lottery scenarios and our projections for the first 14 picks in our Lottery Mock Draft.
Here is the first of my many mock drafts between now and the June 24 draft:
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
New Jersey
John Wall
Position: PG
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 185 pounds
Age: 19
School: Kentucky
Analysis: This is a no-brainer for the Nets if they are lucky enough to land the No. 1 pick. Some look at starting point guard Devin Harris and wonder whether New Jersey should select Evan Turner instead.
The Nets don't.
Although they like Harris, they love Wall. The Kentucky freshman is the type of young potential superstar who could lure a big-time free agent to Jersey this summer.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Minnesota
Evan Turner
Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 205
Age: 21
School: Ohio State
Analysis: Turner would be a terrific fit for the Wolves, who need a versatile swingman who can play multiple positions on the floor. Turner's ability to come in and contribute from day one could help Minnesota immensely next season.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Sacramento
Derrick Favors
Position: PF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 215
Age: 18
College: Georgia Tech
Analysis: The Kings might be terrible at the moment, but a core of Tyreke Evans and Favors would make them very dangerous in the future. Favors didn't have a huge freshman season at Georgia Tech, but he has the potential to be the next Antonio McDyess.
Although it's clear the Kings like Carl Landry and Jason Thompson, neither has the upside of Favors.
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Golden State
DeMarcus Cousins
Position: C
Height: 6-11
Weight: 260
Age: 19
School: Kentucky
Analysis: It figures that Cousins would land in Golden State. The Warriors are filled with young talent, but they're also the most dysfunctional team in the league. Enter Cousins, who was the most talented big man in college basketball, but also the most unstable. It's a match made in heaven.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Washington
Wesley Johnson
Position: SF
Height: 6-7
Weight: 198
Age: 22
School: Syracuse
Analysis: The Wizards aren't desperate for a small forward, but they are desperate for some star power after gutting the roster this winter. Johnson's versatility and upside would be too much to pass up here.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Philadelphia
Cole Aldrich
Position: C
Height: 6-11
Weight: 245
Age: 21
School: Kansas
Analysis: Aldrich might never be a star, but he's a solid big man who rebounds, blocks shots, and scores from inside and out. With only one more season left on Samuel Dalembert's contract, Aldrich would provide some great insurance.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Detroit
Ed Davis
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 215
Age: 20
College: North Carolina
Analysis: The Pistons are high on Al-Farouq Aminu, but the last thing they need is another tweener after adding Austin Daye and Charlie Villanueva last summer. Davis didn't dominate as a sophomore, but he's an athletic big man who's active on the boards. The Pistons desperately need a player like that.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Los Angeles Clippers
Al-Farouq Aminu
Position: SF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 205
Age: 19
School:Wake Forest
Analysis: Aminu is one of the best athletes in the draft. The question is, what position does he play? If he continues to refine his perimeter game, he'd be a great fit next to Blake Griffin in the Clippers' frontcourt.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Utah
(via New York)
Greg Monroe
Position: PF
Height: 6-11
Weight: 250
Age: 19
School: Georgetown
Analysis: The Jazz are in a position to lose Carlos Boozer this summer via free agency, but Monroe would be a solid consolation prize. He's not super athletic, but he's the most skilled big guy in the draft and would be a perfect fit in Jerry Sloan's half-court offense.
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Indiana
Ekpe Udoh
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 240
Age: 22
School: Baylor
Analysis: Barring a lottery miracle, the Pacers are screwed. A month ago, they were looking at possibly drafting No. 4 and adding a building block next to Danny Granger. But a late-season run dropped them all the way to 10th and ended any realistic chance that they'll get a star.
Udoh, however, would fit a need as an athletic shot-blocker who can run the floor.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
New Orleans
Daniel Orton
Position: C
Height: 6-10
Weight: 260
Age: 19
School: Kentucky
Analysis: Orton barely made a dent in the box score for Kentucky, but NBA scouts are convinced he could be a really good NBA center. He is strong and physical, and can dominate on the defensive end.
He needs to improve his offense, but if he does, he could be a star down the road. The Hornets were very thin up front all season. Orton also would give them some insurance in the event Emeka Okafor breaks down.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Memphis
Patrick Patterson
Position: PF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 245
Age: 21
School: Kentucky
Analysis: The Grizzlies are trying to find a way to eke back into the playoffs. After he drafted a "future" guy in Hasheem Thabeet in 2009, expect GM Chris Wallace to go with a more veteran, proven college player this year.
Patterson doesn't wow you with anything he does, but he's solid in virtually every area. Most importantly for the Grizzlies, he would be ready to come in and contribute on day one.
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Toronto
Hassan Whiteside
Position: C
Height: 6-11
Weight: 225
Age: 20
School: Marshall
Analysis: Whiteside has as much upside as anyone in the draft not named Wall or Favors. He's a super-long, lanky shot-blocker who nearly had four triple-doubles this season in points, rebounds and blocked shots.
With the Raptors in danger of losing Chris Bosh this summer, expect Toronto to swing for the fences to help fans forget Bosh if he bolts.
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Houston
Donatas Motiejunas
Position: PF
Height: 7-0
Weight: 220
Age: 19
Country: Lithuania
Analysis: The Rockets have a habit of drafting value, and this low in the draft, Motiejunas would be a good get. He'll probably spend another year in Italy honing his skills and getting stronger, but when he does get to the NBA, he has the makings of a player.
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Milwaukee
(via Chicago)
Xavier Henry
Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 220
Age: 19
School: Kansas
Analysis: John Salmons might end up opting out of his contract, and the Bucks would love to put another blue-chip prospect in the backcourt with Brandon Jennings.
Henry already has an NBA body and can shoot the lights out. He's a little one-dimensional, but he could step in and immediately fill a role for Milwaukee.
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Minnesota
(via Charlotte)
Gordon Hayward
Position: SF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 200
Age: 20
School: Butler
Analysis: The Wolves could really use some consistent shooters who could stretch the defense. Adding Evan Turner won't help much in that regard, but Hayward could. Although he struggled with his shot this past season, he generally is considered a lights-out shooter.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Chicago
(via Milwaukee)
James Anderson
Position: SG
Height: 6-6
Weight: 195
Age: 21
School: Oklahoma State
Analysis: Anderson was one of the best scorers in college basketball and could be a very good fit in the Bulls' backcourt. His ability to stretch the defense and attack the basket should make him a nice complement to Derrick Rose.
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Miami
Eric Bledsoe
Position: PG
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Age: 20
School: Kentucky
Analysis: Bledsoe is a tough, Pat Riley type of player and could be a long-term upgrade from the Mario Chalmers-Carlos Arroyo duo at point guard.
Physically, he's ready for the NBA right now. But he still needs more game-time experience running the point. Long term, Bledsoe could pay off.
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Boston
Luke Babbitt
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 220
Age: 20
School: Nevada
Analysis: The Grizzlies are hoping Babbitt falls a few more spots in the draft, but I think the Celtics will beat them to the punch. Babbitt is an excellent scorer both inside and out, and he'll rebound. Most importantly, he could step in right away for the Celtics.
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San Antonio
Damion James
Position: SF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 224
Age: 22
School: Texas
Analysis: James might be one of the more underrated players in the draft. Very few players have his combination of athleticism and motor. He doesn't have a position on offense, but he's a Spurs type of player all the way.
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Oklahoma City
Solomon Alabi
Position: C
Height: 7-1
Weight: 245
Age: 22
School: Florida State
Analysis: The Thunder continue to lack a legitimate low-post threat. They drafted B.J. Mullens to be that guy last year, but he's still a work in progress. Alabi will be, too, but at this point in the draft, he has too much size and upside to pass on.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Portland
Larry Sanders
Position: SF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 220
Age: 21
School: Va. Commonwealth
Analysis: Sanders is raw, but he's a young, athletic shot-blocker who gets up and down the floor and rebounds. Given the Blazers' depth, they would seem to have the time and patience to develop him over the next couple of seasons.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Minnesota
(via Utah)
Kevin Seraphin
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 258
Age: 20
Country: France
Analysis: With their third pick of this draft, you can expect the Wolves to stash a player overseas. Seraphin hasn't really produced big numbers in France, but he has Serge Ibaka-like physical upside.
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Atlanta
Quincy Pondexter
Position: SF
Height: 6-7
Weight: 220
Age: 22
School: Washington
Analysis: Pondexter was one of the best seniors in the country. He is an elite athlete and proved this season that he can really score. He's a jump shot away from being a star. Think the next Desmond Mason.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Memphis
(via Denver)
Avery Bradley
Position: SG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 180
Age: 19
School: Texas
Analysis: Bradley is tough to peg. A few teams are looking at him in the late lottery. But if he slides a bit, don't expect him to slip much further than here. Bradley's defensive abilities alone make him a lock for the pros. If he can find a position on offense, he could be a star.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Oklahoma City
(via Phoenix)
Devin Ebanks
Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 205
Age: 20
School: West Virginia
Analysis: Ebanks has lottery talent. Defensively, he can do it all with his long wingspan and above-average mobility for his size. But until he develops a reliable jump shot, he remains a work in progress.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
New Jersey
(via Dallas)
Terrico White
Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 211
Age: 20
School: Mississippi
Analysis: White is an elite athlete who, when he's on, is one of the best guards in the country. The problem is, White has a tendency to disappear in games. If the Nets can get him to play with some consistency, he would be a steal here.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Memphis
(via L.A. Lakers)
Paul George
Position: SF
Height: 6-7
Weight: 185
Age: 20
School: Fresno State
Analysis: George suffers from the same issues as White. Great athlete. Very versatile. Doesn't always play hard. With Rudy Gay possibly bolting via free agency, he could be a potential long-term replacement.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Orlando
Willie Warren
Position: PG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 210
Age: 20
School: Oklahoma
Analysis: Warren was considered a potential top-10 pick at the beginning of the season. However, a poor season, combined with some injuries and some bad chemistry with his coach, really hurt his stock.
But Warren is a steal here and the type of versatile guard who could make an impact for the Magic.
PICK TEAM PLAYER VITALS
Washington
(via Cleveland)
Elliot Williams
Position: SG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 180
Age: 20
School: Memphis
Analysis: Williams would provide a skill set similar to that of Randy Foye, whom the Wizards might lose this summer in free agency, but at a much lower cost. The athletic combo guard can play both the 1 and the 2.
Next five in: Stanley Robinson, F, UConn; Jordan Crawford, G, Xavier; Gani Lawal, F, Georgia Tech; Darington Hobson, G/F, New Mexico; Dominique Jones, SG, South Florida
