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[ESPN INsider request] March Madness - Giant Killers
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FSU will not be stopped.
Originally Published: March 12, 2009
Giant Killers: I know who's gonna kill me
Here's a closer look at our top 10 potential Killers
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Keating By Peter Keating
ESPN Insider
Archive
As part of our ongoing Giant Killers series, analyzing NCAA tournament upsets, we take a look at the 10 most likely assassins generated by our model. Behold. And beware. (For a free preview of Giant Killers, click here.)
Niagara Purple Eagles (50.2%) The Purple Eagles are probably NIT-bound after losing to Siena in the MAAC tournament title game, but if they somehow sneak in with an at-large bid, they have the ideal makeup to take down a higher-ranked foe. Allowing few turnovers keeps the ball in their hands. So does monstrous glasswork -- led by seniors Bilal Benn and 6-foot-10, 245-pound Benson Egemonye -- that generates offensive rebounds on 38.6 percent of possessions, according to Ken Pomeroy's fantastic site.
Is Davidson dangerous again? And what about VCU? That info is for ESPN Insiders. Insider
Davidson Wildcats (48.8%) The Wildcats are another conference tourney loser hoping for help from the selection committee, although the presence of Stephen Curry plus the fact four of Davidson's seven losses came against Butler, Duke, Oklahoma and Purdue add up to a decent case for an at-large bid. If they get in, watch out. They're a better defensive team than they appear, giving up just 92.3 points per 100 possessions. They grab offensive rebounds and don't turn the ball over. And they don't rely on free throws (-3.4 free throw margin per 100 possessions), which bodes well against Giants.
San Diego State Aztecs (41.2%) The Aztecs will be a precarious bubble team if they get knocked out of the Mountain West tourney early. But they're a dangerous potential NCAA foe, too. They give up just 59.8 points per game, and it's no illusion. Smart, disruptive PG Richie Williams ranks 19th in the country with a 4.6 steal percentage and freshman Tim Shelton has emerged as a key rebounder (12 boards in 18 minutes when SDSU beat UNLV this past Saturday).
[+] EnlargeEric Maynor
Mitchell Layton/Getty ImagesEric Maynor and VCU are back in the Dance -- and dangerous once more.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams (40.3%) Two years after he beat Duke at the buzzer, point guard Eric Maynor has the Rams back in the NCAA tournament as CAA champs. Maynor scores 31.8 percent of his team's points, the second-highest proportion (behind Curry) of any team in the country, and generates a ton of assists. And he has help from forward Larry Sanders, who had 20 rebounds and seven blocks against George Mason this past Saturday. The combination isn't just fun to watch -- our model says it's potentially lethal.
Akron Zips (36.3%) Seeded fifth in the MAC, the Zips will have to win their conference tournament to grab an NCAA bid, and took a first stagger in that direction by edging a dreadful Toledo squad in OT. They don't rely on free throws (-5.7 free throw margin per 100 possessions). They limit opponents to 29.3 percent three-point shooting, seventh-best in the nation. And senior forward Nate Linhart and freshman guard Humpy Hitchens key an aggressive defense that generates turnovers on 26.9 percent of opponents' possessions, the highest rate among potential Killers.
Cleveland State Vikings (34.8%) They just beat a Giant, upsetting Butler 57-54 on Tuesday to win the Horizon League tournament and clinch an NCAA bid. They're one of the most efficient defenses in the country, surrendering just 92.6 points per 100 possessions. The Vikings are outstanding at grabbing the ball from opponents, thanks largely to senior point guard/highway robber Cedric Jackson, who ranks third in the NCAA with 5.5 steals per 100 possessions.
Creighton Bluejays (32.9%) Another team on the bubble after losing in its conference tournament, the Bluejays got blown out 73-49 in the Missouri Valley semifinals this past Saturday. But if they make the field of 65, their efficiency will cause problems for a Giant. Led by senior guard Booker Woodfox, who ranks 15th in the country in avoiding turnovers, they give the ball up on only 18 percent of possessions while generating turnovers 23.9 percent of the time the other team has the ball. For good measure, Woodfox shoots 49 percent from behind the three-point arc. Secret weapon to watch for: Senior guard Josh Dotzler averages just 21.4 minutes and 3.2 points per game, but ranks second in the nation in steals per possession (5.7 percent).
UAB Blazers (32.8%) The Blazers should be a bubble team -- they're 0-5 versus top-50 RPI teams, 19-0 versus teams with an RPI worse than 100, and 2-5 versus teams in between. But if they manage to join Memphis out of Conference USA, they'll be a threat. UAB is very efficient defensively, giving up just 92.2 points per 100 possessions without clogging the middle (they rank 320th in the country in block percentage). Led by guard Paul Delaney III, who shoots a ridiculous 57 percent from the field, they hardly ever turn the ball over (16 turnover percentage, 10th in the nation).
BYU Cougars (32.6%) The Cougars won't be sneaking up on anyone and, depending on how the brackets fall, they could be classified as a Giant come Sunday. They rank second in the country in two-point field goal shooting and have three outstanding three-point shooters -- 6-7 senior guard Lee Cummard (40 percent), sophomore guard Jimmer Fredette (38 percent) and junior forward Jonathan Tavernari (37.7 percent) -- which makes their average possession very valuable. They don't turn the ball over (16.8 turnover percentage, 11th in the country). And they're second in the nation in preventing opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds (24.8 percent of possessions). The real question is whether they'll get seeded low enough to be called a Killer.
St. Mary's Gaels (32.1%) Seven weeks ago, they were cruising at 18-1 and leading Gonzaga 39-33 on the road at halftime. Then point guard Patrick Mills slipped, crashed to the floor and broke the Gaels' dreams as well as two bones in his right hand. Mills came back for the WCC tournament, but wasn't himself as Gonzaga routed St. Mary's 83-58 on Monday, making the Gaels another mid-major hoping to be rewarded by the committee. Too bad: A quartet of players, led by junior center Omar Samhan and senior forward Diamon Sampson, grab more than 10 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions, which would make St. Mary's dangerous against Giants if the team made it into the field.
Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine.
Giant Killers: I know who's gonna kill me
Here's a closer look at our top 10 potential Killers
Comment Email Print Share
Insider
Keating By Peter Keating
ESPN Insider
Archive
As part of our ongoing Giant Killers series, analyzing NCAA tournament upsets, we take a look at the 10 most likely assassins generated by our model. Behold. And beware. (For a free preview of Giant Killers, click here.)
Niagara Purple Eagles (50.2%) The Purple Eagles are probably NIT-bound after losing to Siena in the MAAC tournament title game, but if they somehow sneak in with an at-large bid, they have the ideal makeup to take down a higher-ranked foe. Allowing few turnovers keeps the ball in their hands. So does monstrous glasswork -- led by seniors Bilal Benn and 6-foot-10, 245-pound Benson Egemonye -- that generates offensive rebounds on 38.6 percent of possessions, according to Ken Pomeroy's fantastic site.
Is Davidson dangerous again? And what about VCU? That info is for ESPN Insiders. Insider
Davidson Wildcats (48.8%) The Wildcats are another conference tourney loser hoping for help from the selection committee, although the presence of Stephen Curry plus the fact four of Davidson's seven losses came against Butler, Duke, Oklahoma and Purdue add up to a decent case for an at-large bid. If they get in, watch out. They're a better defensive team than they appear, giving up just 92.3 points per 100 possessions. They grab offensive rebounds and don't turn the ball over. And they don't rely on free throws (-3.4 free throw margin per 100 possessions), which bodes well against Giants.
San Diego State Aztecs (41.2%) The Aztecs will be a precarious bubble team if they get knocked out of the Mountain West tourney early. But they're a dangerous potential NCAA foe, too. They give up just 59.8 points per game, and it's no illusion. Smart, disruptive PG Richie Williams ranks 19th in the country with a 4.6 steal percentage and freshman Tim Shelton has emerged as a key rebounder (12 boards in 18 minutes when SDSU beat UNLV this past Saturday).
[+] EnlargeEric Maynor
Mitchell Layton/Getty ImagesEric Maynor and VCU are back in the Dance -- and dangerous once more.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams (40.3%) Two years after he beat Duke at the buzzer, point guard Eric Maynor has the Rams back in the NCAA tournament as CAA champs. Maynor scores 31.8 percent of his team's points, the second-highest proportion (behind Curry) of any team in the country, and generates a ton of assists. And he has help from forward Larry Sanders, who had 20 rebounds and seven blocks against George Mason this past Saturday. The combination isn't just fun to watch -- our model says it's potentially lethal.
Akron Zips (36.3%) Seeded fifth in the MAC, the Zips will have to win their conference tournament to grab an NCAA bid, and took a first stagger in that direction by edging a dreadful Toledo squad in OT. They don't rely on free throws (-5.7 free throw margin per 100 possessions). They limit opponents to 29.3 percent three-point shooting, seventh-best in the nation. And senior forward Nate Linhart and freshman guard Humpy Hitchens key an aggressive defense that generates turnovers on 26.9 percent of opponents' possessions, the highest rate among potential Killers.
Cleveland State Vikings (34.8%) They just beat a Giant, upsetting Butler 57-54 on Tuesday to win the Horizon League tournament and clinch an NCAA bid. They're one of the most efficient defenses in the country, surrendering just 92.6 points per 100 possessions. The Vikings are outstanding at grabbing the ball from opponents, thanks largely to senior point guard/highway robber Cedric Jackson, who ranks third in the NCAA with 5.5 steals per 100 possessions.
Creighton Bluejays (32.9%) Another team on the bubble after losing in its conference tournament, the Bluejays got blown out 73-49 in the Missouri Valley semifinals this past Saturday. But if they make the field of 65, their efficiency will cause problems for a Giant. Led by senior guard Booker Woodfox, who ranks 15th in the country in avoiding turnovers, they give the ball up on only 18 percent of possessions while generating turnovers 23.9 percent of the time the other team has the ball. For good measure, Woodfox shoots 49 percent from behind the three-point arc. Secret weapon to watch for: Senior guard Josh Dotzler averages just 21.4 minutes and 3.2 points per game, but ranks second in the nation in steals per possession (5.7 percent).
UAB Blazers (32.8%) The Blazers should be a bubble team -- they're 0-5 versus top-50 RPI teams, 19-0 versus teams with an RPI worse than 100, and 2-5 versus teams in between. But if they manage to join Memphis out of Conference USA, they'll be a threat. UAB is very efficient defensively, giving up just 92.2 points per 100 possessions without clogging the middle (they rank 320th in the country in block percentage). Led by guard Paul Delaney III, who shoots a ridiculous 57 percent from the field, they hardly ever turn the ball over (16 turnover percentage, 10th in the nation).
BYU Cougars (32.6%) The Cougars won't be sneaking up on anyone and, depending on how the brackets fall, they could be classified as a Giant come Sunday. They rank second in the country in two-point field goal shooting and have three outstanding three-point shooters -- 6-7 senior guard Lee Cummard (40 percent), sophomore guard Jimmer Fredette (38 percent) and junior forward Jonathan Tavernari (37.7 percent) -- which makes their average possession very valuable. They don't turn the ball over (16.8 turnover percentage, 11th in the country). And they're second in the nation in preventing opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds (24.8 percent of possessions). The real question is whether they'll get seeded low enough to be called a Killer.
St. Mary's Gaels (32.1%) Seven weeks ago, they were cruising at 18-1 and leading Gonzaga 39-33 on the road at halftime. Then point guard Patrick Mills slipped, crashed to the floor and broke the Gaels' dreams as well as two bones in his right hand. Mills came back for the WCC tournament, but wasn't himself as Gonzaga routed St. Mary's 83-58 on Monday, making the Gaels another mid-major hoping to be rewarded by the committee. Too bad: A quartet of players, led by junior center Omar Samhan and senior forward Diamon Sampson, grab more than 10 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions, which would make St. Mary's dangerous against Giants if the team made it into the field.
Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine.
Originally Published: March 13, 2009
Giant Killers: Big Dogs, Beware
A deeper look at the 10 power teams most likely to be early tourney victims
Comment Email Print Share
Insider
Keating By Peter Keating
ESPN Insider
Archive
Which wildly famous, nationally ranked, heavily favored teams are most likely to stumble early in the NCAA tournament? Glad you asked. We continue our Giant Killers series with a look at the 10 Giants that have the best chance of being upset, according to our statistical analysis (the likelihood of a GK upset is in parentheses). A few have already lost in conference tourneys, and a couple more might fall by Sunday. Now you'll know why they should be even more afraid of the low seeds they'll encounter once the brackets are set. (For a free preview of Giant Killers, click here.)
Florida State Seminoles (72.6 percent) The Seminoles have a record-high death rate for a Giant. The flip side of being the tallest team in the country is that they have few quality ball handlers, which explains why they turn the ball over on 22.7 percent of possessions -- the most of any Giant. And despite Toney Douglas' 20.8 ppg, they don't come close to scoring enough to make up for it: Their adjusted offensive efficiency is just 104.6, ranking them last once again on our list of Giants, in part because their effective field goal shooting percentage is just 48.7. Our analysis says that's a lethal combination.
Should Kansas fans be worried? What makes Michigan State vulnerable? That info is for ESPN Insiders. Insider
Butler Bulldogs (69.6 percent) They just lost to a Killer, getting upset by Cleveland State in the Horizon League final Tuesday. And our model says it could easily happen again, should Butler hold on to a high seed: The young Bulldogs have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 109.7, fourth lowest among Giants. They're held back by offensive rebounding that ranks 183rd in the country (32.6 percent of possessions). They surrender just about as many turnovers as they generate. And when you compare their points scored and allowed, their 26-5 record turns out to be the luckiest of any Giant's.
Xavier Musketeers (63.7 percent) Seen properly, their stats are a collection of red flags. The Musketeers' scoring (adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.0) is somewhat low for a Giant. They turn the ball over on 21.9 percent of possessions (ranking 261st in the country) while generating turnovers on just 19 percent of opponents' possessions (263rd), easily the worst gap among Giants. And they're unusually reliant on free throws (10 more foul shots than opponents per 100 possessions).
Michigan State Spartans (44.7 percent) It's hard to complain about a team with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 88.1, but the Spartans commit more turnovers (21 percent) than they generate (20.3 percent). And of the field goals they allow, an unusually high proportion (30 percent) are 3s. Those are dangerous trends.
[+] EnlargeBlake Griffin
Nick Laham/Getty ImagesBlake Griffin might be the most dominant player in the country, but Oklahoma looks vulnerable against a would-be Giant Killer.
Oklahoma Sooners (44.5 percent) Until Thursday, it would have seemed ridiculous to worry about a team with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 118.4. Except that 68 percent of the Sooners' scoring margin over opponents comes from the free throw line, making them vulnerable to the likes of James Anderson and Oklahoma State, who stunned Oklahoma in the Big 12 tourney Thursday. Although the Cowboys don't qualify as a Giant Killer, a mid-major school is capable of replicating that accomplishment, especially if the Sooners don't start forcing more turnovers (they cause opponents to cough the ball up on just 18 percent of possessions, which is 299th in the NCAA).
LSU Tigers (40.5 percent) Start with an effective field goal percentage of just 50.4. Add in turnovers generated on only 19.2 percent of opponents' possessions (247th in the country) and an under-reliance on 3-pointers (just 23 percent of all field goals) and you have to wonder how the Tigers have won 25 games. Well, in addition to feasting on the lousy SEC, their nonconference opponents (which include the likes of Centenary, Nicholls State and Louisiana-Lafayette) have a combined winning percentage of .299.
Kansas Jayhawks (40.4 percent) The Jayhawks turn the ball over on 21.6 percent of possessions and force turnovers only 19.2 percent of the time when the other team has the ball. So every now and then, they'll be prone to getting nuked by a team like Baylor (technically not a Giant Killer, but a proxy for one), which shocked Kansas in the Big 12 tourney. Kansas got outrebounded by seven and lost by seven points. That could easily happen again.
Illinois Fighting Illini (37.8 percent) Unlike most of the teams on this list, the Illini do force more turnovers than they give up, and they don't rely heavily on free throws. But they don't shoot 3s either (just 21.8 percent of all shots) and, more importantly, their offensive rebounding rate (30.6 percent) ranks 252nd in the country.
Syracuse Orange (37.2 percent) Nearly all of Cuse's scoring margin comes from free throws; the Orange have attempted a whopping 249 more than their opponents this season, which means one bad ref could take them down. Their turnover gap also goes the wrong way, as they surrender the ball on 20.2 percent of possessions but take it away on just 18.8 percent (which ranks 275th in the country). And their relative lack of size allows opponents to grab offensive rebounds on 36.3 percent of possessions (277th). These factors didn't doom the Orange in 70 minutes of hoops against UConn on Thursday night, but they do make Syracuse vulnerable to an upstart.
Villanova Wildcats (35.6 percent) The Wildcats don't turn the ball over as often as most of the teams listed here, and they do outrebound their opponents significantly on the offensive glass. But they are vulnerable to outside shooting: 33.9 percent of opponents' field goals are 3s, by far the highest of any Giant, and that can get a Killer going in a hurry. Also … Penn's a local rivalry, but Monmouth? Fordham? Houston Baptist? Villanova's nonconference opponents had a winning percentage of just .415, lowest of any top-20 team other than Wake Forest.
Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine.
Giant Killers: Big Dogs, Beware
A deeper look at the 10 power teams most likely to be early tourney victims
Comment Email Print Share
Insider
Keating By Peter Keating
ESPN Insider
Archive
Which wildly famous, nationally ranked, heavily favored teams are most likely to stumble early in the NCAA tournament? Glad you asked. We continue our Giant Killers series with a look at the 10 Giants that have the best chance of being upset, according to our statistical analysis (the likelihood of a GK upset is in parentheses). A few have already lost in conference tourneys, and a couple more might fall by Sunday. Now you'll know why they should be even more afraid of the low seeds they'll encounter once the brackets are set. (For a free preview of Giant Killers, click here.)
Florida State Seminoles (72.6 percent) The Seminoles have a record-high death rate for a Giant. The flip side of being the tallest team in the country is that they have few quality ball handlers, which explains why they turn the ball over on 22.7 percent of possessions -- the most of any Giant. And despite Toney Douglas' 20.8 ppg, they don't come close to scoring enough to make up for it: Their adjusted offensive efficiency is just 104.6, ranking them last once again on our list of Giants, in part because their effective field goal shooting percentage is just 48.7. Our analysis says that's a lethal combination.
Should Kansas fans be worried? What makes Michigan State vulnerable? That info is for ESPN Insiders. Insider
Butler Bulldogs (69.6 percent) They just lost to a Killer, getting upset by Cleveland State in the Horizon League final Tuesday. And our model says it could easily happen again, should Butler hold on to a high seed: The young Bulldogs have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 109.7, fourth lowest among Giants. They're held back by offensive rebounding that ranks 183rd in the country (32.6 percent of possessions). They surrender just about as many turnovers as they generate. And when you compare their points scored and allowed, their 26-5 record turns out to be the luckiest of any Giant's.
Xavier Musketeers (63.7 percent) Seen properly, their stats are a collection of red flags. The Musketeers' scoring (adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.0) is somewhat low for a Giant. They turn the ball over on 21.9 percent of possessions (ranking 261st in the country) while generating turnovers on just 19 percent of opponents' possessions (263rd), easily the worst gap among Giants. And they're unusually reliant on free throws (10 more foul shots than opponents per 100 possessions).
Michigan State Spartans (44.7 percent) It's hard to complain about a team with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 88.1, but the Spartans commit more turnovers (21 percent) than they generate (20.3 percent). And of the field goals they allow, an unusually high proportion (30 percent) are 3s. Those are dangerous trends.
[+] EnlargeBlake Griffin
Nick Laham/Getty ImagesBlake Griffin might be the most dominant player in the country, but Oklahoma looks vulnerable against a would-be Giant Killer.
Oklahoma Sooners (44.5 percent) Until Thursday, it would have seemed ridiculous to worry about a team with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 118.4. Except that 68 percent of the Sooners' scoring margin over opponents comes from the free throw line, making them vulnerable to the likes of James Anderson and Oklahoma State, who stunned Oklahoma in the Big 12 tourney Thursday. Although the Cowboys don't qualify as a Giant Killer, a mid-major school is capable of replicating that accomplishment, especially if the Sooners don't start forcing more turnovers (they cause opponents to cough the ball up on just 18 percent of possessions, which is 299th in the NCAA).
LSU Tigers (40.5 percent) Start with an effective field goal percentage of just 50.4. Add in turnovers generated on only 19.2 percent of opponents' possessions (247th in the country) and an under-reliance on 3-pointers (just 23 percent of all field goals) and you have to wonder how the Tigers have won 25 games. Well, in addition to feasting on the lousy SEC, their nonconference opponents (which include the likes of Centenary, Nicholls State and Louisiana-Lafayette) have a combined winning percentage of .299.
Kansas Jayhawks (40.4 percent) The Jayhawks turn the ball over on 21.6 percent of possessions and force turnovers only 19.2 percent of the time when the other team has the ball. So every now and then, they'll be prone to getting nuked by a team like Baylor (technically not a Giant Killer, but a proxy for one), which shocked Kansas in the Big 12 tourney. Kansas got outrebounded by seven and lost by seven points. That could easily happen again.
Illinois Fighting Illini (37.8 percent) Unlike most of the teams on this list, the Illini do force more turnovers than they give up, and they don't rely heavily on free throws. But they don't shoot 3s either (just 21.8 percent of all shots) and, more importantly, their offensive rebounding rate (30.6 percent) ranks 252nd in the country.
Syracuse Orange (37.2 percent) Nearly all of Cuse's scoring margin comes from free throws; the Orange have attempted a whopping 249 more than their opponents this season, which means one bad ref could take them down. Their turnover gap also goes the wrong way, as they surrender the ball on 20.2 percent of possessions but take it away on just 18.8 percent (which ranks 275th in the country). And their relative lack of size allows opponents to grab offensive rebounds on 36.3 percent of possessions (277th). These factors didn't doom the Orange in 70 minutes of hoops against UConn on Thursday night, but they do make Syracuse vulnerable to an upstart.
Villanova Wildcats (35.6 percent) The Wildcats don't turn the ball over as often as most of the teams listed here, and they do outrebound their opponents significantly on the offensive glass. But they are vulnerable to outside shooting: 33.9 percent of opponents' field goals are 3s, by far the highest of any Giant, and that can get a Killer going in a hurry. Also … Penn's a local rivalry, but Monmouth? Fordham? Houston Baptist? Villanova's nonconference opponents had a winning percentage of just .415, lowest of any top-20 team other than Wake Forest.
Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine.