Has anyone on teedub played the game? Curious if I should buy a ship so I can try it out.
I think there are some lower-tier ships that are not outrageously overpriced.
That's exactly what the fallacy is. You make rational decisions based on the future value of objects, investments and experiences. You're only willing to concede that once those future values turn up bunk down the road? jfc.
Let's imagine two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
CIG runs out of funds and does not finish the game before release -or- is forced to release the game 'as is' in a bid to drum up retail sales to continue development.
Scenario 2:
CIG continues to raise enough funds until the project is completed and the game is released.
So the first case will probably be a disaster. The game will likely not be well received by anyone who isn't already a fanatic (the fans have already put their money in so their opinion means little here). The main narrative will be a $300M game releases after years of delays to poor reviews.
The second option raises the question: how much time and money does it take? We know the answer can't be an infinite amount of time and money so there has to be an actual number where this project can succeed which means there's a possibility of over-shooting that window (if it hasn't happened already). This is the realm where everyone outside of backing this game lives.
--
In December of 2018, Roberts secured $46M from a private investor in exchange for 10% stake in the company. This sounds rather obscene because it's basically saying CIG is valued at nearly half a billion dollars yet who would sell a portion of their company if public pledges were still going strong? The only product of value this company produces is purely speculative and funds from backers have to continue as forecast. If they don't forecast correctly then you have to secure money some other way (which is what happened).
And on the subject of advertising: Star Citizen has crowd sourced over $200M without even having a game to advertise - Its profile is so high, I doubt Squadron 42 would release and "nobody would know about it". Roberts offers an explanation which sounds correct in terms of business but completely contradictory in the context of CIG/Star Citizen.
I think selling a portion of the company is a signal of desperate needs to raise money and I would be surprised if it's the last concession Roberts makes before this game is released. CIG is in a shit position because until the game is released, what assets do they have? personale and equipment - so downsizing to save money drags development longer which only works if pledges continue and there's no guarantee those will continue for years more. The other option is to sell shares of CIG or in-game advertising/revenue streams and the more you lean on investors, the more they lean back on wanting their returns (this outcome hands the development of the game over to the investors and the public/Roberts lose their sovereignty).
they also only have like 15m left in the bank, which is about 5months. the forbes article will likely raise more doubt and reduce public investment.
manual asset dev is just not the right approach to making such a game, it HAS to be procedurally generated, and by procedurally i mean AI assisted... using a GAN for not only asset generation but dynamic quests. this is fairly new tech and expect it to hit game dev soon, its already being used in prelim asset gen.
if done properly a tiny team will be able to make what SC hoped to be in a reasonably short time. and expect that to happen before SC completes, unless they adopt AI themselves.
Has anyone on teedub played the game? Curious if I should buy a ship so I can try it out.
I think there are some lower-tier ships that are not outrageously overpriced.
In December of 2018, Roberts secured $46M from a private investor in exchange for 10% stake in the company. This sounds rather obscene because it's basically saying CIG is valued at nearly half a billion dollars yet who would sell a portion of their company if public pledges were still going strong? The only product of value this company produces is purely speculative and funds from backers have to continue as forecast. If they don't forecast correctly then you have to secure money some other way (which is what happened).
And on the subject of advertising: Star Citizen has crowd sourced over $200M without even having a game to advertise - Its profile is so high, I doubt Squadron 42 would release and "nobody would know about it". Roberts offers an explanation which sounds correct in terms of business but completely contradictory in the context of CIG/Star Citizen.
I think selling a portion of the company is a signal of desperate needs to raise money and I would be surprised if it's the last concession Roberts makes before this game is released. CIG is in a shit position because until the game is released, what assets do they have? personale and equipment - so downsizing to save money drags development longer which only works if pledges continue and there's no guarantee those will continue for years more. The other option is to sell shares of CIG or in-game advertising/revenue streams and the more you lean on investors, the more they lean back on wanting their returns (this outcome hands the development of the game over to the investors and the public/Roberts lose their sovereignty).
Yea that RDR2 estimate is based off of a made up average Rockstar employee making a $100,000 salary and that the game had over 1000 people working on it specifically for at least 5 years. It's literally a made up number based on "it could be this" data.
Many of SC's assets are already procedurally generated. All planets, moons, outposts, and "truck stops" (small stations) are 90% PG with the remainder being minor tweaks like item and flora placement, lighting adjustments, and polish. Only the major cities are hand crafted, and then only the parts the player is meant to walk around in and interact with directly -- the rest is PG.
The tech to do all that is what's at least partially responsible for the multi-year delays. Roberts decided very early on (around the time they brought on Marco Corbetta from Crytek) to take the PG tech they'd promised was only in R&D and make it a core feature of the full game. That decision has added years to the project, building on a rough concept Corbetta had developed for Crytek in the years prior.
I think if they actually finish it, we'll ultimately get a bigger, better game in the end. But it has cost them enormously in terms of backer trust and public perception. They could have waited, given us planet tech as a post-launch feature, and probably finished both games by now. But again, nobody, including the fans, had the wisdom or the balls to tell Roberts no. He probably wouldn't have listened anyway.
im still guessing their style of proc gen is the old fashion method, which is limited to things like terrain. im quite sure all assets, quests, etc are still all manually done. and they definitely are if it takes 1 guy and roberts micromanaging him months to do a single model. if they abuse GANs successfully they can setup new models in seconds and just spend a few hours tweaking them to perfection.
Or you could watch this year old video on how they do instead of guessing:
CitizenCon 2017: Tool Demonstation for Procedural City, Building and Room Generation - YouTube