VeteranXV Contributor
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Did... did that guy piss himself, or is it just really unfortunate shadows/a ps?
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VeteranXX
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I bet that room smells like Icy Hot, urine, and moth balls.
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VeteranX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -§trife-
I think most people are saying that given the Democrats structural advantages Obama should have a big lead rather than a debate over how close the race really is.
Money, perception, issues, and the incumbent President's party's gigantic unpopularity means Obama should be doing better than he really is.
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Well, folks can throw around figures all they want but the trend among national polls is that they are basically in a dead heat, with obama having an insignificant lead. Folks can emphasize how states matter more than national polls (true), but you cant deny the fact that the national polls are even.
Neither party has even engaged in their conventions, and thus neither party has consolidated a platform and fierce agenda going into november.
Indeed, with all the hype about "media bias," all the primary buzz and all the things going for him... Obama should be in double digit leads.
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VeteranXV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -§trife-
I think most people are saying that given the Democrats structural advantages Obama should have a big lead rather than a debate over how close the race really is.
Money, perception, issues, and the incumbent President's party's gigantic unpopularity means Obama should be doing better than he really is.
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that certainly is a fair criticism, though given the view that McCain is more centrist than Republican he has moderated that popularity problem a bit... if the Republican picked anyone other than McCain the race is probably headed into the double digits right now. Additionally the long democratic primary didn't really help with all the money obama blew while McCain got a chance to largely fundraise and try to make peace with various groups in the party.
Obama's campaign lost a lot of steam over the last couple weeks due to the questions over appearing to change his mind on a number of issues/trying to go right on a number of issues. Before that point it was actually beginning to look like a blow-out was building.
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VeteranXX Contributor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TseTse
Yes.
The underlying problem is that the GOP base is a mix of **** and they have had no unifying vision beyond flag waving, since 2001. His road to victory is to redefine what "Republican" means as a more inclusive, tolerant and pragmatic (i.e. centrist) party. He has the balls to do this, but i'm not sure he has the balls to do it during the campaign.
I think they are scared that doing that wouldn't get the social conservatives and fringes out to vote, just like they saw the backlash against him during the primaries.
If he picks Huckabee...
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Last time the republicans tried to be all-inclusive, the jesus freaks took over. Those ****s need to get out and the GOP will be far better off for it.
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VeteranXV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TseTse
Well, folks can throw around figures all they want but the trend among national polls is that they are basically in a dead heat, with obama having an insignificant lead. Folks can emphasize how states matter more than national polls (true), but you cant deny the fact that the national polls are even.
Neither party has even engaged in their conventions, and thus neither party has consolidated a platform and fierce agenda going into november.
Indeed, with all the hype about "media bias," all the primary buzz and all the things going for him... Obama should be in double digit leads.
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They aren't even, even an average of Obama +3 is not even nor is it a dead-heat.
They are trending towards even, yes, but they are not there yet.
I'd also hardly say all the primary buzz was a good thing seeing as how you've got some pissed off clinton supporters who are working to get mccain elected. As for media bias, that charge is laughable when you consider how long the media have been giving blowjobs to mccain.. though one might see the irony of the media leaving the older and disfigured love for a younger and prettier model
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VeteranXX
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The Rasmussen poll has seen pretty good movement from basically a deadheat towards Obama during the course of his trip. All that generally positive media coverage can't hurt but it won't necessarily last either.
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VeteranXX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kizzak
They aren't even, even an average of Obama +3 is not even nor is it a dead-heat.
They are trending towards even, yes, but they are not there yet.
I'd also hardly say all the primary buzz was a good thing seeing as how you've got some pissed off clinton supporters who are working to get mccain elected. As for media bias, that charge is laughable when you consider how long the media have been giving blowjobs to mccain.. though one might see the irony of the media leaving the older and disfigured love for a younger and prettier model
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I could see how you think the media has been evenhanded with Obama after those hard hitting Candy Crowley and Brian Williams interviews
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VeteranXV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -§trife-
I could see how you think the media has been evenhanded with Obama after those hard hitting Candy Crowley and Brian Williams interviews
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I generally ignore most tv media so I have no opinion of them, but you can go back in time and find plenty of examples of swooning for mccain as well - in fact that was the only reason why he was able to stay in the primary when he was bankrupt
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VeteranXX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kizzak
I generally ignore most tv media so I have no opinion of them, but you can go back in time and find plenty of examples of swooning for mccain as well - in fact that was the only reason why he was able to stay in the primary when he was bankrupt
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The Brian Williams one aired on Countdown right after Olbermann brought on one of his suckpigs to fellate him and reconfirm everything he already thinks.
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VeteranXV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -§trife-
The Rasmussen poll has seen pretty good movement from basically a deadheat towards Obama during the course of his trip. All that generally positive media coverage can't hurt but it won't necessarily last either.
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even rasmussen had Obama well up before (+6 7/2-7/4, +5 6/29-7/1)
If you look at their daily numbers, the race started narrowing on July 8th and only stayed within 2 points for about 2 weeks
So you could look at it the other way as well, the recent narrowing of the race was due to the obama running to the right meme that was picked up and you are seeing those numbers return to how it was before that story hit.
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VeteranXV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -§trife-
The Brian Williams one aired on Countdown right after Olbermann brought on one of his suckpigs to fellate him and reconfirm everything he already thinks.
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So basically what you mean is now there is a FOX News for liberals?
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VeteranX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TseTse
Not really.
Pollster.com: 2008 National Presidential General Election:McCain vs Obama
It's a statistical dead heat in national polls, and any mild advantage at this point in the season is totally insignificant beyond press reporting (and the sense of being seen as ahead).
It will probably come down to a few specific states and voter turn-out, again, unless something huge happens between now and november. This notion that Obama is going to blow Mccain out of the water does not show itself in any of these polls... although voter turn-out could make it so.
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The national polls might not say much this far out, but I think some of the state polls are telling. Some states that have been considered solidly red are backing Obama, albiet by narrow margins. The lead may be satistically insignificant but Obama should not even be close to McCain in these states.
Colorado: Obama averages a 1.7 point lead in recent polls. Colorado went for Bush by 2.46 points in 2004 (which was surprisingly close) and for Bush by 8.36 points in 2000. Obama is likely to get a bounce here since the convention is being held here.
Virginia: Obama averages a 1 point lead here. Bush won here by 8.2 points in 2004 and 8.03 points in 2000. Virginia has been moving left, lots of young people have been moving into NOVA in recent years, and the state has elected two straight Democratic governors and unseated an incumbent Republican senator in 2006.
Montana: A July 1 poll (only poll to be conducted in the state since May) gave Obama a 5 point lead. Bush demolished Gore and Kerry here by over 10 points in each election.
North Carolina: McCain only has a 3.7 point lead here, which is pretty bad since Bush won it by 12.44 points in 2004 and 12.83 points in 2000.
Indiana: Obama has a 0.5 point lead here and hasn't trailed since April. This is an extremely religious bible belt state that Bush won by 20.68 (!) points in 2004 and 15.64 points in 2000.
If Obama wins even a few of these and holds on to everything Kerry won, the election is his.
Also, some of the "swing" states are not so much this year. Obama has a 9.6 point lead in Washington, 6.7 point lead in Oregon, 8.3 point lead in Pennsylvania, 11 point lead in Maine, 10.4 point lead in Wisconsin, and a 7.4 point lead in Iowa.
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VeteranXX
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sorta.
I like Olbermann ("That's a 6-4-3 double play if you're scoring at home...or even if you're all alone") but him bringing on the opening guest every single day to create an echo chamber gets kind of annoying. At least O'Reilly brings on his opponents...for no other reason to yell at them, but still.
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VeteranXV Contributor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by -§trife-
sorta.
I like Olbermann ("That's a 6-4-3 double play if you're scoring at home...or even if you're all alone") but him bringing on the opening guest every single day to create an echo chamber gets kind of annoying. At least O'Reilly brings on his opponents...for no other reason to yell at them, but still.
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that's because olbermann is a goddamn ***** crybaby ****
look it up
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VeteranXV
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what is this obama has more money crap
mccain/rnc have more money on hand than obama/dnc
YES, obama has raised more, but he wasted it all on the extended primary with hillary. Means absolutely dick in the general.
mccain needs to do.. idk, something. For starters he can point out the only reason obama even took this trip was because he had no credible experience in the foreign policy arena in the first place. One term senators usually don't.
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VeteranXV
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btw, I'm still wondering about the polling being done in GA, the state group that has been doing polling has been calling it a close race (+1-2 McCain) when compared to national agencies running polls (+10 or so)
The local group is a conservative one so I don't really see how they would benefit from claiming GA is in play since there might be one seriously contested race either way come the fall and I think the democrats will have the resources to back the incumbent heavily.
My only cause for question is whether the national groups missed out on trends that are obvious to local groups (huge surge in african americans registered since 04 and major migration to the suburbs and city itself from out of staters)
the local group also claims 51% said they would be more likely to vote for Obama if he chose Nunn as his running mate though that's just as much of a throw away question as you can get
Admittedly the local group includes barr in the polls but the biggest criticism I could find with their poll is that they seem to be claiming 28.9% of the likely voters consider themselves independents
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VeteranXV
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Quote:
The local group is a conservative one so I don't really see how they would benefit from claiming GA is in play
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people don't vote if their state is a sure thing. If I knew mass had a chance to go red, id go out and vote.
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VeteranX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triple
what is this obama has more money crap
mccain/rnc have more money on hand than obama/dnc
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seriously, do you just wake up in the morning and repeat bull**** until you convince yourself it's true? i mean... jesus ****ing christ.
and please dont start spamming blog **** you barely understand.
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VeteranXV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TseTse
seriously, do you just wake up in the morning and repeat bull**** until you convince yourself it's true? i mean... jesus ****ing christ.
and please dont start spamming blog **** you barely understand.
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tsetse, i suggest you show me some numbers before you arbitrarily call bull****.
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