When Kosovo declared independence from Serbia, the decision was enthusiastically recognized and supported by the Bush Administration. The Russian Federation, for its part, with Putin at the helm, condemned and opposed what it considered an aggression against Serbia's sovereignty. It was in 2008. Yesterday, therefore.
Since then, 13 years have passed. And yesterday, not surprisingly, the roles were reversed. Putin, like Bush, decided to recognize the independence of the Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts as independent republics. Biden, like Putin, was quick to condemn the violation of Ukrainian sovereignty.
To reduce what is happening in eastern Ukraine to "good" versus "bad" is complete nonsense. What is happening on the Russian-Ukrainian border is realpolitik happening. It is a clash between two powers that want exactly the same thing: to strengthen their position and their power. They give a shit about the Ukrainians, they give a shit about the Donbass separatists, they give a shit about the security of the EU. All of them are means to ends that are equally indifferent to secondary actors. In realpolitik, there is no room for ethical or moral considerations. Hard power, raw and unfeeling, as Nye described it.
It is important that this be very clear, because political science, not being a science that can afford to isolate experiments in the laboratory, obtaining mathematically accurate results, also has its absolute truths. One of them is this: the political actors who are confronted today in Ukraine are not interested in altruism or the defense of human rights. There is only and only the national interest of both powers, from the point of view of those who govern them. And this goes for both sides. If democracy and human rights were an absolute value, Europe would not be colonized by Chinese capital and selfies in the absolute monarchies of the Middle East would lose all their charm.
Putin intends to expand and consolidate the expansion of his sphere of influence, and, along the way, weaken the EU. End her, if possible. Not because he is “evil” (Putin is a beast, but that is not what is at issue here), but because this is the way to increase his power and influence, at the limit his survival and the survival of the regime he personalizes. It is not for nothing that it finances the Eurosceptic European extreme right, which makes it even more anecdotal, or tragic, I don't know, to see people and left-wing parties defending it against American imperialism, as if Putin were Robin Hood. , with hammer and sickle in place of bow and arrows. And the recognition of the independence of the areas controlled by the separatists, which he had already supported for several years, will be his golden visa to rush to militarily assist his new allies, with whom he immediately signed “friendship” pacts, which demonstrates that everything was planned. with some anticipation. In fact, Putin himself has already admitted to entering the territory to carry out a peacekeeping mission. The irony is beautiful, and it becomes more beautiful when it occurs to us that the Russian dictator specializes in poisons, not only for murdering opponents on British soil, but also for giving us a taste of our own. Karma, that relentless bitch. Almost as ruthless as the oligarch-king.
Biden and his hawks, on the other hand, want to expand NATO, of which they are masters, and reinforce their military power, also reinforcing the power and profits of the arms industry, always so generous in times of election campaign. The same NATO that, in the aftermath of the dissolution of the USSR, guaranteed that it would not expand beyond Germany. As sure as the assurance you gave us 19 years ago about the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Basically, Ukraine will be Putin's Iraq: an invasion, disguised by false moral pretenses that do not interest Putin in the slightest, which will allow him to take over a part or even the whole country, depending on how the pieces are going to move. on the board. But let's not be naive: the US did what it could to make this the outcome. And the invasion of Ukraine will be the perfect pretext to get what they really want: to intervene militarily, generate trillion-dollar deals for the arms giants, almost all of them American, annex Ukraine through NATO, humiliate Putin, increase their sphere of influence and put additional pressure on China, its only real adversary, which has in the Russian Federation a sea of land, hostile to the West, which itself functions as a buffer zone for Beijing.
I'm sorry if I disappoint the lyricists, who think they're witnessing a battle of good versus evil, but that's not what's happening. What is happening is a clash of interests between two powers, which literally don't give a damn about Ukraine. It's just another proxy war.
