If the Trump administration succeeds in adding the question “Are you a U.S. Citizen?” to the 2020 census, the Census Bureau estimates that 6.5 million people won’t respond to the census at all.
Most of those will be Hispanics or people with immigrants in their families who are fearful of exposing themselves or their family members to deportation, investigation, or worse. According to a Harvard University study, between 7.7 and 9.1 percent of Hispanics will skip the census entirely.
And that, in turn, will lead to fewer representatives in the House from states with large Hispanic populations—like California, New York, Illinois, Arizona, and Texas—and, accordingly, fewer electors in the electoral college to choose a president.
It’s no exaggeration to say that the 2024 election could be decided on the basis of this census question.