Predict whether Trump will be impeached and convicted in the Senate

Percent chance Trump is impeached and convicted in the Senate

  • Total voters
    58
  • Poll closed .
A

aScotiA

Veteran XX
With public hearings beginning next week in the impeachment trial, this seems like a good time to hear TW's opinions on the matter. Do you think there's a non-zero chance that the Republican-led Senate will turn against Trump? Let's hear it.
 
Last edited:
I think there’s a non-zero chance of course but I wouldn’t bet on it in Vegas that the senate will do anything. Lol did you see what Leningrad Lindsey said today? “I won’t read the transcripts of the interviews because this is all BS”.
 
I doubt there are 20 Republicans who would consider flipping. Trump's approval within the Republican party is 95%, it would be career suicide and none of them would do it without knowing everyone else is on board. If it were even a possibility, you'd have names already of potential swing Senators like with the Kavanaugh vote.
 
They will only flip if public opinion forces their hand. Before Nixon's impeachment hearings, support for removal was only around 20%. After the tapes were released, things snowballed until it became evident that the GOP had no choice other than to convict. That's what forced Nixon to resign.

Despite Trump's 90%+ approval within the GOP, he is starting with nearly 50% of the public already supporting removal. Republican senators will only stand with Trump so long as their own reelection depends upon him. That's the only thing which makes me think they may actually turn against him, however small a chance.
 
Last edited:
No way this ends in less than a year. If it really starts trending poorly, Jeb will storm the beaches of the convention and become the nominee. If that happens I give it a 10% chance.
 
aScotiA said:
They will only flip if public opinion forces their hand. Before Nixon's impeachment hearings, support for removal was only around 20%. After the tapes were released, things snowballed until it became evident that the GOP had no choice other than to convict. That's what forced Nixon to resign.

Despite Trump's 90%+ approval within the GOP, he is starting with nearly 50% of the public already supporting removal. Republican senators will only stand with Trump so long as their own reelection depends upon him. That's the only thing which makes me think they may actually turn against him, however small a chance.
Click to expand...

Yea I've heard this narrative before almost word for word. Republicans were a minority party in both the House and the Senate during Nixon's impeachment, and only 13 would need to flip to convict Nixon. It was also 1973, and there were Republican senators in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Oregon, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. A year later there were even fewer Republicans in both houses (7 senators, 34 congressmen).

You might swing a general population 2-5% more than the 47% they're at now, but it doesn't matter on a state by state basis. You're certainly not going to sway them with hearsay from anonymous Democrat insiders with an opinion. It's also interesting that you seem to approach this from the possibility that support for removal can only go up.

If you'd like to take a shot though, I'd love to hear which 20 Republican senators are in seats so competitive that a 5-10% increase in support for removal nationwide would make them more afraid than they would be of the Republican voter backlash locally.
 
I’d like to see what the 6th amendment means for the whistleblowers sworn testimony does Schiff even know how to constitution?? :rofl:


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Fool said:
Yea I've heard this narrative before almost word for word. Republicans were a minority party in both the House and the Senate during Nixon's impeachment, and only 13 would need to flip to convict Nixon. It was also 1973, and there were Republican senators in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Oregon, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. A year later there were even fewer Republicans in both houses (7 senators, 34 congressmen).

You might swing a general population 2-5% more than the 47% they're at now, but it doesn't matter on a state by state basis. You're certainly not going to sway them with hearsay from anonymous Democrat insiders with an opinion. It's also interesting that you seem to approach this from the possibility that support for removal can only go up.

If you'd like to take a shot though, I'd love to hear which 20 Republican senators are in seats so competitive that a 5-10% increase in support for removal nationwide would make them more afraid than they would be of the Republican voter backlash locally.
Click to expand...
Yeah, times are definitely different in all sorts of ways. I'm gonna glance at the list and unscientifically see how many I think could possibly flip due to various forms of political pressure:

Lamar Alexander (retiring)
Richard Burr (has shown some objectivity in Trump-related matters)
Shelley Moore Capito (somewhat moderate from what I know, up for reelection)
Susan Collins (swing state, up for reelection)
Ted Cruz (doubtful but you know he hates Trump deep down)
Mike Enzi (retiring)
Joni Ernst (politically-engaged swing state, up for reelection)
Cory Gardner (swing state, up for reelection)
Lindsay Graham (personally hates Trump, up for reelection, has changed positions a zillion times)
Chuck Grassley (probably not but same state as Joni Ernst and has shown some objectivity)
Ron Johnson (swing state, dude can't figure out what he believes)
Mitch McConnell (hates Trump, up for reelection, could decide he's better off with Pence and bring the caucus with him)
Martha McSally (swing state)
Lisa Murkowski (vulnerable and sometimes breaks with GOP)
Rob Portman (politically-engaged swing state)
Pat Roberts (retiring)
Mitt Romney (duh)
Marco Rubio (hates Trump, young and has eyes on the future)
Ben Sasse (young, sometimes speaks against GOP but rarely acts, up for reelection)
Pat Toomey (swing state)

I went down the list without counting and that is coincidentally 20 GOP senators who I could see flipping in bizarro-world. The wild card is, of course, McConnell. If he decides it's time to send Trump upstate, many others would follow in his footsteps. This is a 10-20% chance in my estimates, but it's closer to 10% than it is to 20%.
 
You know, when dems get away with this shit and stay in office, it makes the stuff they don't like about Trump seem foolish. Such a double standard. What the fuck is wrong with Virginians? Guess I don't need to ask since they are the ones that started the KKK.

Joe Morrissey (D)
Felons voting in Virginia
Felony disenfranchisement in Virginia. Felony disenfranchisement in Virginia is a provision of the Virginia Constitution: "No person who has been convicted of a felony shall be qualified to vote unless his civil rights have been restored by the Governor or other appropriate authority".
Click to expand...

A Virginia Democrat, who was accused in 2014 of having sex with his teenage secretary he later married, won the Democratic primary on Tuesday for the state’s 16th Senate District.
Click to expand...

Despite denying the wrongdoing, he pleaded guilty in 2015 to a misdemeanor, contributing to the delinquency of a minor and admitted that prosecutors had enough evidence for a conviction.

The Democrat spent six months in jail for the crime but managed to continue serving in the state legislature during the sentence.
Click to expand...

Justin Fairfax(D)
Justin Fairfax Accused of Sexual Assault by Second Woman: ‘Disgusting! This Dude Raped Me.’

Days after Dr. Vanessa Tyson went public with her sexual-assault allegations against Virginia Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, another woman has accused him of rape.

In a statement from her lawyer, Meredith Watson claims she was raped by Fairfax, who is next in line to become governor, in 2000, when they were both students at Duke University. The letter characterizes the alleged attack as “premeditated and aggressive.”

“The two were friends but never dated or had any romantic relationship,” the statement said.

In a statement obtained by The Daily Beast, Fairfax denied the accusation and declared: “I will not resign.”
Click to expand...

Gov. Ralph Northam (D)
iu
 
They literally kill federal inmates and the news ignores it. They droned American citizens and the news said nothing. They sold state secrets, they're uninterested.
Trump has a phone call, attempting to get some actual justice for actual corruption, and it's apparently impeachable.
 
The republicans stayed in line on the recent house vote, yet 2 democrats flipped.

There won't be 20 republican senators who flip, no way.

Nixon resigned because people said he would be impeached and that republican senators would flip. He believed the news which was fake. The democrats are trying to do the same thing now, and it's not going to work.
 
I predict there are enough senators sucking trumpcock to keep that blabbermouth tub of shit in office til 1-20-2021
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top