Quote:
Originally Posted by Goshin
Nope
Static fire helps them know the wiring and **** won't explode but the forces 27 engines throws on the frame, plus acoustic vibrations and ****, not to mention what you said, max q aerodynamics while in flight.... That's all ???
Elon thought at best 50/50 it doesn't explode, and a win would be it blows up far enough away to not cause pad damage
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it's pretty rare for a rocket to just blow up on the pad.. like it could happen but the chances are nowhere near 50/50. These guys will scrub at the slightest issue, of course elon says its 50/50, but his control room needs to act like it should be 99/1. Anything less they don't launch.
amos-6, exploded on the pad, was a static fire
elon with the 50/50 talk was just tempering expectations imo
after the static fire I went from "it could blow up on the pad" to "okay so it'll probably survive until at least max q".. even then that wasn't likely. These guys aren't launching falcon 1s anymore, they know what they're doing.