What Mike Trout has accomplished in the first years of his career is unprecedented, and there are lots of different ways to quantify that. In his first five full seasons, he became the first player to win two MVP awards and finish second three times, and that’s never happened before. He has appeared on every MVP ballot cast for AL players since the start of the 2012 season.
He will almost certainly collect career hit No. 1,000 in the season ahead -- he needs 83 to reach that benchmark -- and will probably bash his 200th homer, draw his 500th walk and hit his 200th double. Remember, Trout doesn’t turn 26 until August.
Another way to illustrate his preeminence is through his positional dominance. Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information sent along a list of the best players at each position over the past three years by wins above replacement. Paul Goldschmidt is the No. 1 player at first base in that time with a margin of 2.0 WAR over Anthony Rizzo. Brandon Crawford has been the best at shortstop with 13.4 WAR -- a margin of 1.8 over Andrelton Simmons.
The biggest gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 players in WAR -- and you already know where this is headed -- has been in center field. Trout has generated 27.8 WAR, trailed by Kevin Kiermaier (16.4) and Adam Eaton (15.4).
The difference in the best players at any position, by WAR, has been enormous.
1. Trout 27.8
2. Josh Donaldson 23.6
3. Clayton Kershaw 20.6
So, here we present the top 10 center fielders, based on input from evaluators. Even in a crowded field, it’s a given that the best is Trout, who is on his way to becoming an inner-circle Hall of Famer, a historic peer of Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds and Ty Cobb.
1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
If for some reason you still aren't convinced, here are a couple of last notes about Trout, from Sarah Langs and Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information:
There have been seven instances of a center fielder with 9.0+ WAR in the divisional era. Mike Trout has four of those, followed by Ken Griffey Jr. with two and Rickey Henderson with one.
The only players to have more WAR than Trout’s 10.8 in 2012 in a single season while primarily playing center field are Mickey Mantle (twice), Ty Cobb and Willie Mays (twice).
The difference between Trout and the second-best center fielder in WAR the last three seasons is 10.6. The last time there was a WAR gap that big among center fielders occurred 1964 to 1966 with Mays at 31.2 WAR and Willie Davis at 13.6.
Trout has led the AL in WAR each of those seasons as well, tied with Walter Johnson for the second-longest such streak ever. Babe Ruth holds the record with six straight seasons from 1926 to 1931.
2. Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox
The Top 10 lists solicited from evaluators reflected the increasing emphasis on defense in Major League Baseball, as elite glove men like Kevin Kiermaier, Ender Inciarte and Bradley Jr. were mentioned on all ballots despite some questions about their offense. Bradley Jr. ranked fourth among center fielders in defensive runs saved last season with 11, and he probably has the best throwing arm of any center fielder.
He accumulated 26 homers, 30 doubles and seven triples, scoring 94 runs and driving in 87 despite hitting in the bottom half of the Boston lineup for most of the 2016 season. However, some evaluators are curious about whether pitchers have found the kryptonite for Bradley, who hit just .216 over his last 57 games last season.
3. Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
His 29 starts in center field last season convinced Marlins manager Don Mattingly to keep him in the spot for 2017 -- that’s the plan, anyway -- and he is among the best offensive players in this spot, as he continues to develop power. Yelich, who just turned 25, has had a steady climb in slugging percentage, from .396 in 2013 to .402 (2014) to .416 (2015) to .483 last season.
He is doing more damage in a home park that does not foster big offense numbers; whatever the opposite of the Coors Field effect should be called, Yelich lives in it for half his games: Last season, he had a .774 OPS in home games, .934 on the road. For his career, he’s producing a .764 OPS at home, .829 on the road.
4. A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks
An elbow injury limited Pollock to just 12 games last season, but the Diamondbacks retained him for 2017 rather than following up on the serious trade interest because they will try to contend in the NL West. When healthy, Pollock is their second-best player behind Goldschmidt. The Diamondbacks saw his impact first-hand: In 2015, he posted a 7.4 WAR, with 65 extra-base hits, 39 steals (in 46 attempts) and provided high-end defense. If Arizona struggles in the first half, the Diamondbacks could look to move him to a contender. Pollock is eligible for free agency in the fall of 2018.
5. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
Based on the Top 10 lists provided to ESPN by evaluators, it’s evident that many scouts and execs view McCutchen’s production slide last year as an aberration and expect a bounce-back season from him. McCutchen led the NL in OPS in 2014 at .952, but last year he finished at .766, a decline of almost 200 points.
The most concerning of McCutchen’s metrics are in his defense: He ranked dead last among all outfielders in defensive runs saved at minus-28, although coaches and players are becoming convinced that the DRS numbers are directly related to positioning: The deeper you play, the more your DRS metric is protected. But the Pirates must have their own questions about this, because they’ve discussed flipping McCutchen and Starling Marte to left and center field, respectively.
6. Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals
The industry debate over whether the Nationals surrendered too much for Eaton in their trade with the White Sox seemed to obscure the reality that Eaton is a really good player, a metrics machine. He ranked second among outfielders in defensive runs saved last season, at plus-22 -- although he generated that number while playing right field, and now he’ll be moving back to center. Eaton had a .362 on-base percentage last year, and was 11th in the majors in fWAR. Whether or not the Nationals overpaid for Eaton, Washington will be a better team with Eaton and Trea Turner hitting in the top two spots in its lineup, ahead of Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy et al.
7. Dexter Fowler, St. Louis Cardinals
In a winter in which free-agent spending has been generally depressed, the Cardinals paid $82.5 million for Fowler’s production and experience. His presence is part of a larger St. Louis commitment to improved defense and athleticism, and because he hits leadoff, manager Mike Matheny can shift Matt Carpenter into the more meaty part of the Cardinals’ lineup.
Fowler missed a month’s worth of games because of injury, but he still reached base 215 times, providing power (13 homers), speed (he ranked eighth among all major leaguers in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric) and patience. His 4.41 pitches per plate appearance were the fourth most in the majors last season. A batting order with Fowler and Carpenter near the top will be challenging for any starting pitcher because of their extended at-bats: Fowler swung at the lowest percentage of pitches out of the zone among all major leaguers, and Carpenter was 10th in this category.
His defensive metrics spiked upward last year, but some evaluators believe that was because Fowler was positioned more deeply in 2016 than 2015. Craig Edwards writes that given Fowler’s skill set, he should age well.
8. Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
After Colorado signed Ian Desmond to a $70 million deal, the assumption of some rival executives was that the Rockies would inevitably swap either Carlos Gonzalez or Blackmon in order to capitalize on their value before they hit free agency -- Blackmon after the 2018 season. But the asking price for Blackmon is said to be extremely high, which is understandable in light of how well he has played in recent seasons. He scored 111 runs last season and posted an adjusted OPS+ of 130, the best of his career. While most Colorado players have a big difference in their home/road splits, the 30-year-old Blackmon excelled everywhere he played in 2016: He had 17 homers on the road last season, 12 at home and had a .926 OPS away from Coors Field (.939 at home).
From Sarah Langs of ESPN Stats & Information: Blackmon hit 29 home runs from the leadoff spot last season, the most of any player and most since Mike Trout hit 30 in 2012. No Rockies player other than Blackmon has ever notched a double-digit home run total from the leadoff spot. Blackmon has done it each year since 2014.
9. Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays
Kiermaier attacks his defensive work with a special ferocity, envisioning playmaking whether he’s taking fly balls during batting practice or in actual games. During a lazy spring training morning last year, Kiermaier raced around the outfield at the Rays’ camp in Port Charlotte and gloved line drives mashed by teammates in a meaningless BP session. Logan Morrison finally drove a ball over Kiermaier’s head and cussed loudly at him, with some good-natured exasperation: “Catch that, Kiermaier …”
Since the start of the 2014 season, no center fielder is close to the Rays’ center fielder in defensive runs saved. He shattered his wrist last season -- playing defense, of course -- an injury that cost him about two months. His OBP climbed to .331 last season, and his chances of getting paid big dollars by Tampa Bay -- or any other team -- will be greatly improved if he continues to develop at the plate.
10. Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves
In his first season with Atlanta after being acquired in the Shelby Miller trade, Inciarte started terribly after sustaining a hamstring injury -- and then erupted as his health improved. After June 5, Inciarte had a .371 OBP, with 74 runs scored in 104 games. Because of his array of skills -- the defense, the baserunning, the ability at the plate -- Inciarte finished seventh among center fielders in fWAR despite playing in 131 games.
Honorable mention
Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals: Some evaluators placed Cain near the bottom of their Top 10s, or off them altogether, because of the injuries that limited him to 103 games last season. When Cain plays, he has the potential to have high impact on everything -- he was third in the vote for the AL MVP award in 2015, after all. But in a year in which Cain will become eligible for free agency, it will be extremely important for him to demonstrate that he can stay on the field, stay in the lineup and be durable. Cain, who turns 31 in April, has only two seasons of 133 or more games and has never had more than 140.
Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles: His decline in extra-base hits is the primary reason why the Orioles’ leader moved down the list this year. He had 19 doubles and 29 homers while playing hurt for a lot of the season, with his slugging percentage dipping to .436, his lowest since 2008. Jones is 31, and after hitting in the leadoff spot in 108 games last season, he is expected to move down in the lineup to a place where he’ll hit more often with runners in scoring position.
Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers: There were big organizational concerns about Pederson’s swing in spring training, when he struggled. But he emerged to have a really nice season of progress while working with hitting coach Turner Ward. Pederson’s swing-and-miss rate dropped from 14 percent in 2015 to 10.3 percent in 2016, and his batting average climbed 36 points, to .246.
Kevin Pillar, Toronto Blue Jays: With his fearless style of play, he dominated some defensive metrics last season. Some evaluators want to see more offensive production before ranking him in the Top 10.
Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies: A Rule 5 pick who rated 111 in adjusted OPS+ in each of his first two big league seasons, Herrera was rewarded with a long-term deal that could run through the 2023 season.
Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds: His on-base percentage climbed significantly during the season last year to .344 in his last 77 games. The fact that Cincinnati kept a high asking price for Hamilton in trade talks is a clue that the Reds want to see if his improvement will continue. He stole 50 bases in 56 games after May 28.
Wild card -- George Springer, Houston Astros: With the addition of Josh Reddick, it’s possible that Astros manager A.J. Hinch will put George Springer in center and Reddick in right field. For the purpose of this series, we’re going to rank Springer and Reddick among the right fielders.
for the result