Asking a girl on a second date.

The answer is about 65%

If your test is 95% accurate, then the odds of a random American being a mormon are only 26% when the test says they are.

The answer is about 65%

If your test is 95% accurate, then the odds of a random American being a mormon are only 26% when the test says they are.

uhh that's not right

I thought it was the same the first time I heard the problem, too. But it isn't.

I actually wrote a quick Java program to simulate this and I can assure you that the average number of flips is not the same.

So with that answer eliminated, try to reason out the correct one.

I'm not complaining about your answer to the problem, but PRNGs aren't really random.

uhh that's not right

Why not?

I'm not complaining about your answer to the problem, but PRNGs aren't really random.

Neither is flipping a coin

What is the point of posting douchey things?

Why not?

your test is 95% right, and if your test says someone is a mormon there is only a 26% chance they are? i think you meant to say there is a 26% chance they are not.

mind you i'm not actually doing stats calculations here, but just from eyeballing those numbers, they look odd

your test is 95% right, and if your test says someone is a mormon there is only a 26% chance they are? i think you meant to say there is a 26% chance they are not.

mind you i'm not actually doing stats calculations here, but just from eyeballing those numbers, they look odd

There are about 300,000,000 Americans and 5.5 million of them are mormons.

That means there are 5,500,000 mormons and 294,500,000 non-mormons.

Since our test is 95% accurate, it identifiers 5,225,000 of the mormons as mormons. Since our test is 5% inaccurate, it identifies 14,725,000 non-mormons as mormons as well.

So out of all Americans that the test marks as mormon, only 26.2% are actually mormon.

Since our test is 95% accurate, it identifiers 5,225,000 of the mormons as mormons. Since our test is 5% inaccurate, it identifies 14,725,000 non-mormons as mormons as well.

this is so utterly wrong

The answer is about 65%

If your test is 95% accurate, then the odds of a random American being a mormon are only 26% when the test says they are.

lol .. . this was the first thing I read upon opening this thread after a few hours away. So we have now moved back to discussion of Mormons, while maintaining the statistics question. Now if we can tie dating back in, this thread will be epic.

"have a good life"

ROFL

this is so utterly wrong

Uh, no it isn't. Unless you have any idea what is going on, don't bother replying.

There are 294,500,000 non-Mormon Americans. If our test returns the wrong result on 5% of the population, then 14,725,000 non-Mormons are marked as Mormons. More non-Mormons will be marked as Mormons than there are total Mormons in the population.

If we take out the middle "m", then I have 100% accuracy test marking you positive.

Give me confidence TW. (This is going to backfire)

Get out of mormonism and fuck girls. your life sounds like it's the shits. board game parties???????

There are about 300,000,000 Americans and 5.5 million of them are mormons.

That means there are 5,500,000 mormons and 294,500,000 non-mormons.

Since our test is 95% accurate, it identifiers 5,225,000 of the mormons as mormons. Since our test is 5% inaccurate, it identifies 14,725,000 non-mormons as mormons as well.

So out of all Americans that the test marks as mormon, only 26.2% are actually mormon.

:rofl::rofl:

go do a basic statistics course and try again

I am going to go through this thread and compile a dumbass list base on responses to the probability problems posed.

Maybe I should crosscheck that list against the reponses in the airplane on a treadmill thread and see what the correlation is.

:rofl::rofl:

go do a basic statistics course and try again

edited to match ravens numbers...

:shrug: sounds reasonable to me but im pretty dumb

if you test 294.5 million americans with a device that is 95% accurate in determining whether they are mormon or not

you can assume 5% will be determined to be mormon incorrectly.

so 14.725 million americans are detected as mormon

if there is actually 5.5 million mormons in america (total pop 300), then the odds of those mormons being inaccurately detected as nonmormons is 225 K

so you have 14.725 mill nonmormons detected, and 5.225 mill mormons detected
so only 5.225/19.95*100% = 26.19% are actually mormons
and .225/(300-19.95)*100% =.08% are actually undetected mormons

whats wrong with the math/logic there?

so if you detect a mormon with the device, theres only a 26.19% chance they are actually mormon :shrug: and if you detect a nonmormon, there is a .08% chance they are actually mormon

of course, the 100% accurate way to detect a mormon is to try to hug them. if they shake your hand and tell you to have a good life then they must be mormon.

The problem I posed is a popular probability puzzle. I didn't make it up on my own, I just used mormon detection instead of what is typically a question about disease detection. The unfortunate issue for reZolut is that I actually have taken probability courses, which is why I understand this and he is in so much disbelief.

I wouldn't call anyone a dumbass for getting that wrong as it is tricky, but when you are so forceful about it, I think it is a fair description.

of course, the 100% accurate way to detect a mormon is to try to hug them. if they shake your hand and tell you to have a good life then they must be mormon.

FTW- Thread = Over. It just can't get better from here. Send it to the HOF.



:signed:

Uh, no it isn't. Unless you have any idea what is going on, don't bother replying.

There are 294,500,000 non-Mormon Americans. If our test returns the wrong result on 5% of the population, then 14,725,000 non-Mormons are marked as Mormons. More non-Mormons will be marked as Mormons than there are total Mormons in the population.

If we take out the middle "m", then I have 100% accuracy test marking you positive.

theres a difference between false positive and false negative rates

But, It's cool seeing newb fucks like pretending to be math masters

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

theres a difference between false positive and false negative rates

But, It's cool seeing newb fucks like pretending to be math masters

this.