Is this sustainable?

i dont want to post on 2+2 because they would think i was a noob or bragging or something.
basically i started with 50 dollars at the beginning of the month having never really played online before. i read a SHITLOAD and decided to get in to it after i found that i was winning. i started with 2 dollars SNGs, then moved on to multitabling 6 dollars sngs, and my ROI was around 15 percent. once i had around 200 dollars i entered a tournament and went up another 200, and then i started to play 6-ring cash games

basically im running around 30 BB/Hour with a very limited sample size.
My bankroll has grown to 1000, doubling in a few days. i tried multitabling .1/.25 but i found my winrate was much higher with .5/1 selecting only 2 tables with high vpip and using pokertracker and spadeeye

http://img264.imageshack.us/img264/989/hmmrl5.jpg

now, when could i ever consider moving up? is it likely im just running really hot right now? i have a sort of small bankroll, i figure if i drop down to ~600 il just drop stakes. wanted to know your thoughts



game_level total_hands vol_saw_flop saw_flop_sb co_folded_sb co_folded_bb att_steal co_pct_wsf co_total_won

NL ($1) (6 max) 742 21.9677 32.1168 80 83.7838 34.6667 48.6301 477.05

heh

fwiw you should start posting on 2p2, and dont post anywhere but the microstakes NL section.

I'm going to keep this as brief as possible,

742 hands is a monumentally small sample size. To get a picture of how much variance in the game there is (even at small stakes), people can run "hot" for periods of 25,000-30,000 hands or more. A typical winrate for a really good 100nl player over a good sample size is probably around 7-10ptbb's.

Also, you're playing on a bankroll of 10 buyins, not nearly enough to play the stakes you're playing. You should be playing 50nl right now.

I cant read your stats bc they're very confusing...whats your VPIP/PFR/ATTN TO STEAL

oh and one last note...if you really care about the game you'll take my advice and spend the time you browse tw and convert it to time you spend reading every single thread in microstakes nl inlcuding the stickies (most important)

word

my vpip is around 23 percent, its grown a little higher since ive started selecting tables, prf is 17 percent, attempt to steal is around 37 percent, but it was higher, again, before i started playing with 2 or 3 maniacs at each table.

and i completely agree with the buy-in thing- i just am having too much fun at the 1 level and i think im playing really good poker. guess im lucky though, only time ive gotten stacked was an hour ago when i hit a set and lost to an over set that the guy rivered after we were all in

do you play professionally or semiprofessionally? school fucks with my playing a lot

i play semi professionally bc im still in school, but i avg around 35k hands a month at 400nl hu and 600nl 6max

i have a job when i come out of college, but if i own this sems i may take some time to play

You didnt want to post this on 2+2 because you were afraid they would think you were a 'noob'. you go on to say in the next sentence you started playing this month and never really played online before. I think that makes you a 'noob' :)

A very important thing in poker is to be aware of your own skill level and dont be overconfident. I think you hit a good run and have a bit too much confidence right now.. I might be wrong ofcourse, but your obv lacking knowledge regarding some aspects of poker (brm and variance)

The latest bankroll management that I've seen is that you should have 20 buy-ins if you are playing full ring (9 max) and you should have 30 buy-ins if you are playing 6-max. Also, 800 hands is a minuscule sample size. Just for a small comparison, I played 3500 hands yesterday on tilt (yay for 15 tabling 9 max). How you are doing at a level really can't be determined unless you keep playing at a particular level, 30 ptbb / 100 is running pretty hot and I don't think that that is sustainable by a long shot (although I don't have evidence to back that up). I've done that for maybe a 1000 hand session, but certainly not much longer than that.

Also, get on 2+2, you won't regret it.

In addition to the good advice offered by others in this thread, I wanted to confirm for you that 60 bb/100 is not sustainable. If youre good at the $1 bb level expect to make no more than 6 bb/100 or so. (thats PTBB which is 2x the big blind)

i'd be willing to bet that i could get over 6ptbbs @ 100nl :] (6max)

I didn't specify "how good." You play higher frequently, don't you? I'm trying to give a realistic goal. If you're beating the game for 12bb/100 you're doing just fine imo. And I figured someone who has to ask if 66 ptbb/100 is sustainable might not be quite your level of play.

i'd be willing to bet that i could get over 6ptbbs @ 100nl :] (6max)

I'm sure that you could beat 100NL 6-max for more than 12 bb / 100 hands, but aiming higher with out a decent grasp of long term online poker is pretty foolhardy. Certainly 60+ isn't possible ;)

You didnt want to post this on 2+2 because you were afraid they would think you were a 'noob'. you go on to say in the next sentence you started playing this month and never really played online before. I think that makes you a 'noob' :)

A very important thing in poker is to be aware of your own skill level and dont be overconfident. I think you hit a good run and have a bit too much confidence right now.. I might be wrong ofcourse, but your obv lacking knowledge regarding some aspects of poker (brm and variance)

good post, i think you are completely correct

Hey Poof, just to further illustrate things. Having a winrate of 60+ptbb/100 , and assuming variance is based on a normal distribution, for a span of 8,000 hands would be akin to winning several 1 in a million lotteries in a row.

dude youre awesome, you should tell me your FTP screenname so i can donate to you on 100NL.