Advice on a limit hold'em hand...

I was going through my showdown muck history for the day and I was reminded of the following hand. At the time I remember that I didn't really think about it very much and just played (what I thought) was the only way I could have played it. Looking at it now though, I'm not sure I even made a single right move...

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with :9s, :ks.
3 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) :ts, :6s, :7h (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) :8h (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps
...

The SB was new to the table (this was his second hand), so I had no information at all on him. The Button was mostly weak-tight (a bet/raise by him was rare and seemed to always signify a lot of strength).

The failure to bet my super-straight/flush/overcard-draw on the flop aside, any thoughts on how the turn played out? When I hit the gutshot and the SB bet out, my first instinct was to smooth call in an effort to get the Button to call as well (it's not like I had to be very worried about the flush). However, the raise caught me a little by surprise, and the 3-bet even more so...

At the point when it came back to me, I was fairly certain the Button also had a 9 for the straight, but I wasn't very sure on what the SB was 3-betting with. Still, I ended up capping it with a "ah what-the-hell" attitude pretty quickly... but do you think it may be reasonable to consider folding at this point? If the Button has a 9, then I'm likely to split the pot with a free-roll to the winning hand. However, if he's holding a J9, then I only have my flush outs (and J for a split I guess). Not only that, but there's a possibility that the SB is 3-betting with the ace-high flush draw (it's hard to imagine someone 3-betting on that board with two-pair, set, or even a low flush draw). Worst case scenario, I'm drawing dead to a tie. Best case scenario, the SB is an idiot and I'm free-rolling for the pot. What do you guys think? Does the possibility of having no flush outs and/or splitting the pot change the pot-odds in favor of a fold?

gotta know when to fold em


hope that helps

Flop is a bet, but you know this already.

I would raise the turn because you have a lot of equity with your redraw. There is no reason to think button's going to raise here (which is what you want), and if he calls behind you it's usually because he has two pair, and with implied odds on the river two-pair is *almost* getting the right price on a call. Even though calling here is still a mistake for him, the equity you gain from that mistake is small compared to the equity you have on your redraw. He's definitely playing a bare 9 anyway regardless of what you do.

I think folding the turn is out of the question. You are just being results oriented. You will be up against 2 crap 9s here plenty often to justify jamming.

It is also virtually inconceivable for the SB to be 3-betting an ace-high flush draw. Why do you not think he would 3-bet a naked 9? You just flat-called, there's no reason to think you have a made straight; he probably puts you on a draw and wants to get you out of the pot. 3-betting a naked 9 is the correct play in his spot, IMO.

Your point that from the SB perspective, I was just on a draw (or at the very least not on a straight), is a good point. I guess the reason I didn't think the SB had a 9 at the time was just that I put the Button on the 9 first (on his raise). The idea that all 3 of us had a 9 seemed unlikely. Looking back, this judgment is a pretty glaring error on my part. The reason I think the idea of a (nut) flush draw being 3-bet was stuck in my head was that the table in general (though in hindsight, not these guys in particular) was pretty aggressive post-flop in terms of flush draws when pots had a lot of action (i.e. check for free cards while the pot is small, but if people start betting/raising, then go nuts in retaliation hoping to win that jackpot).

However, I agree with you in that I doubt I would ever realistically fold in this or any similar situation, simply because the potential free-roll with the flush (and it's K high to boot). Of course, this would have been easier if I bet the flop and won right there, or gotten 2 callers and had a bigger pot to draw to.

I think the reason this hand concerned me is not results oriented in the traditional sense... because I drew out on the flush and won. It's more because I was a little shocked in retrospect to find in the muck history that both players had a 9, and that the button actually had the J9, which cumulatively I had not really considered as a probable scenario at the time...

The related problem that ultimately concerned me about this situation, after knowing the button was holding J9, would be what to do if the river did not improve my hand at all. There's a lot of potential for getting sandwiched into a bunch of crying calls for a split if the SB remains aggressive behind the Button with a dead 9.

Furthermore, if I had raised the turn, gotten 3-bet by the Button, and capped by the SB, how many bets do you start calling on the river with an unimproved hand? And in the broader sense, does the inability to get away from giving the opposing player a huge river payoff (due to having two players raising between you) in the event of a missed flush make folding, instead of capping, in the above turn scenario correct (sort of a reverse-implied-odds)? I guess that answer would partially rely on how much I think I'd get paid off for hitting the flush.

In the end, I got really lucky despite my poor plays/read (and the SB made a pretty questionable bet/2bets-cold-call on the river). The fact that the button had J9 (eliminating my free-roll) actually ended up paying me off big time on the river because he was (apparently) confident he was up against dead 9's.

Rest of the hand history...

Turn: (1.50 BB) :8h (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, Button raises, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls.

River: (13.50 BB) :as (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB calls, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 23.50 BB

... (not run through a hand converter)
Button mucked [9d Jd]
SB mucked [5h 9h]

It's unlikely that you all have a 9, but if the action dictates it it must be true.

On the river let's think about what would happen if you call SB's (inevitable) bet and the button raises. This would be a extraordinary play with the bare 9. Extraordinarily good, I mean. He would certainly know the SB is a donkey and could easily have a bare 9, and with you just calling you must not have J9, so you would have to fold here a very small % of the time to make raising correct, since he's practically freerolling on his raise. The only caveat to this is if you were tricky enough to call with the J9 or SB were lucky enough to wake up with the J9, both of which are relatively unlikely scenarios. However, I would never expect this kind of thought process from a weak-tight (as you describe him) 5/10 player. In his eyes, raising with a bare 9 would be suicide since it's being split 3 ways at best. So I think you can safely call SB's bet and fold if the button raises.

Having decided we can correctly lose only 1 bet on the river, I think the reverse implied odds on the turn don't quite get there anymore.