Pair + flush draw 2000 NL

$2000 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, January 18, 23:49:42 EDT 2006
Table Table 70559 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: nanonoko ( $2000 )
Seat 2: JKNNRockford ( $2721 )
Seat 3: StuDaKid ( $4157.50 )
Seat 4: reefaaddict ( $2409.50 )
Seat 5: aasezz ( $1632.79 )
Seat 6: tantalus___ ( $1880 )
Seat 7: NMDynasty ( $2022 )
Seat 8: hotmark777 ( $2207 )
Seat 9: Santz777 ( $2122.50 )
Seat 10: Cheddarmon ( $1970 )
Santz777 posts small blind [$10].
Cheddarmon posts big blind [$20].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Cheddarmon [ 3s As ]
nanonoko calls [$20].
JKNNRockford folds.
StuDaKid folds.
reefaaddict raises [$69].
aasezz folds.
tantalus___ folds.
NMDynasty folds.
hotmark777 folds.
Santz777 calls [$59].
Cheddarmon calls [$49].
nanonoko calls [$49].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ts, Ks, 3h ]
Santz777 bets [$150].
Cheddarmon calls [$150].
nanonoko calls [$150].
reefaaddict raises [$300].
Santz777 calls [$150].
Cheddarmon calls [$150].
nanonoko calls [$150].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ah ]

reefaaddict - vpip 27.07, 12.73% preflop raise, and up 6k over 4,000 hands

What's your plan on this turn?

call/check

About $1475 in the pot on the turn. How much should I be willing to call?

anything under 500 prolly

You turn 2 pair and have the nut flush draw ... I would bet it strong and look to come over the top of any raisers.

worst case scenario he hit a set or a straight on the turn. i don't think either of these are likely given a 3x raise pre flop and only a min reraise on a scary board for either of those hands. in the case of the set you're looking at 9 outs to the flush and 2 As for a bigger boat for 11 outs.

More likely i think is that you're looking at AK and that A gave him a higher 2 pair. same situation though really, 9 outs to the flush and 2 3s now for the boat. for the other two you could be looking at some wierd QJ or K10/A10 hands that could push this pot farther than you're willing to follow.

if a loose club hits at this point i don't think you're going to get much more out of the table so i wouldn't worry about implied odds. anything under 500 is a definate call as you'll be given odds, I'd check to reefaaddict and call 500 or less. anything more will commit you most likely behind in the hand with a ~25% chance to win.

also, this is why i don't play NL cash games. personally i don't think i could get away from a hand like this.

yea ak is a very likely hand in this situation? although you spiking on the turn makes it a tough decision, id definatly see the river for anything around 500, that line seems to be the best option

somehow i have a feeling he bets like 600, you call and hit the spade on the river or the 3 and bust him

As said above anything under $500 and you have odds, even if he at this point has the worst hand for you to play against which is the other 2 aces (putting you at about 18% with your 9 outs). Obviously AA is very unlikely for him at this point, so you can assume that, if you are behind, you are 25%.

If I'm not mistaken 12.73% is a large preflop raise percentage. This means he could be sitting on K10 or QJ. His $300 flop raise into an opened 2 called pot and that flop is risky and I think stupid with AK or a set. Honestly, I have him on QJs.

I can't imagine his hand being that strong with a minraise. I wouldn't think AK is all that likely. Likewise softplaying a set on a flop like that is way too dangerous. I'm not sure I agree that check/calling is the best way to play this hand. Here you have an obviously powerful hand and are behind only a few hands, with a redraw to the nut flush. It's so hard for me to want to comment on hands at this limit since I have no experience at it. With 2 pair and a redraw to the nut flush I'd be inclined to try to take the pot down on the turn.

so many people in the pot, its not really that strong of a hand on the turn.

Well, I checked as did everyone else. I flushed on the river, bet, and everyone folded.

Well, I checked as did everyone else. I flushed on the river, bet, and everyone folded.

definately not how i expected the hand to finish. but like somebody said, 12%pfr seems high. can't necessarily put him on as strong a hand as i was assuming.

if you get all the money in on the turn you are in big trouble. a worse hand will very rarely call here. if you bet you also bet out lower spade draws that you would normally stack on the river. plus who cares if you give a free card, a lot of them help you and you don't want to bet and commit yourself.

the minraise on the flop could be TT or KK easily. a big raise is too likely to make everyone fold but he still wants to get more money in the pot. obv if he is decent it will never be this, but i've seen it happen plenty of times. QJ is also a distinct possibility.

well put caco

faggot

Yeah I was real surprised no one else had a flush.

I feel like at least a small bet is in order on the turn. I hate to be results oriented but not getting any action on the river hurts, and I personally feel like 2 pair in this spot is pretty strong. You'll get action from a variety of hands that are on draws or are not as strong as 2 pair often. I guess the question is how often can you get action from weaker hands vs how often you'll be behind.

I feel like you'll often get called by AJ, AQ, KT,SpadeSpade, and sometimes by hands like KQ, KJ (obviously less likely). And will be behind hands like AK, QJ, or a set on occasion, but not often. Coupled with the fact that you have a redraw to the nuts I feel like getting some money in on the turn is +EV.

It seems like I'm in the minority here though. I'd like to hear other peoples takes on the situation.

Yeah, but the pot is massive at this point. He has barely more than one pot-sized bet behind, and there are 4 other people in the hand and a very pertinent draw was just completed. There is no amount you can bet that will both a) protect your hand and b) not commit you. A call from AJ and AQ would be dubious at best and I don't know why they would even be in this pot. If either of these 3 hands were prepared to call a small bet on the turn they will certainly call a small bet on the river--probably regardless if it bricks or not because of irresistible pot odds.

Now suppose we move all-in and suppose that only QJ will call and everything else will fold.

x=% of time someone has QJ
pot=1476
behind=1601
EV = x*(.283*3077-.717*1601) + (1-x)*1476

At break-even, x=84.2% of the time. Gosh, that seems awfully high.