scared to fire a third bullet

***** Hand History for Game 3225194700 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:18404643 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Sunday, December 18, 22:12:31 EDT 2005
Table Table 67238 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: DChappyy ( $1105 )
Seat 10: bobbysgirl2 ( $875 )
Seat 5: TNanni ( $790 )
Seat 8: passthesuger ( $995 )
Seat 6: SLOGA1 ( $370 )
Seat 2: BigButt84 ( $770 )
Seat 9: freezy24 ( $595 )
Seat 1: kitchab ( $850 )
Seat 3: laleh ( $755 )
Seat 4: danielb1976 ( $895 )
Trny:18404643 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to passthesuger [ Ac Kh ]
SLOGA1 folds.
DChappyy calls [15].
passthesuger raises [60].
freezy24 folds.
bobbysgirl2 folds.
kitchab calls [60].
BigButt84 folds.
laleh folds.
danielb1976 folds.
TNanni folds.
DChappyy calls [45].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 8h, Qc ]
DChappyy checks.
passthesuger bets [100].
kitchab folds.
DChappyy calls [100].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
DChappyy checks.
passthesuger bets [250].
DChappyy calls [250].
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
DChappyy checks.
passthesuger checks.
DChappyy shows [ Ks, 6s ] a pair of sixes.
>You have options at Table 66921 Table!.
passthesuger doesn't show [ Ac, Kh ] high card ace.
DChappyy wins 905 chips from the main pot with a pair of sixes.


Aright, so i KNEW the only way to win this pot was to bet the river, and i also knew that this guy was just like any other low limit fish calling down with trash, but my question is WHEN do i know to fire that last bullet, i cant tell whether or not he would have called me down with it, and if i fold there it still gives me enough $ to manuever with...

did i play this ok? should i have even fired the second bullet?

I can probably say I've never triple barrel bluffed in a low sng, ever. And I wouldn't have even fired the first bullet on that flop. in strict TEV that bet will probably show a profit.. or be break-even at least, but there are a few other things to think about:
1) if he folds, you probably had him beat anyway. sure, you don't want to give free cards to JT or some crap, but I just wouldn't worry about it... if a bet scares him off on the flop you probably could have checked it down to a free showdown anyway and had the best hand a good % of the time.
2) he could be a complete fish.
3) it would suck to get check/raised when you have outs. when you are up against better players this isn't an issue, since when you get check/raised your outs are almost never good anyway. but betting yourself off a hand with outs is an EV disaster as we in the poker community like to say.
4) in the 11s-33s on party your stack is small enough such that there's very little room to maneuveur like this early on. those hundred chips you just bet will be extremely valuable later. there is an adage that says each chip you get is less valuable than the one before it... so this works in two ways... first if you bet and take the pot you get your stack from 800 to 900... those extra 100 chips aren't going to be nearly as valuable to you as a lost c-bet will later. also, since the people are loose enough to where you have to play very few hands the blinds WILL eat up at least 200 chips before you get into pushing mode... so when we are looking at your stack pre-cbet and post-cbet we're not comparing 800 to 700... we're really comparing 600 to 500, or 500 to 400. the difference in the latter two is HUGE.
5) people suck ass in the low sngs. you could never bluff and still turn a huge profit. since you figure to outplay them later anyway when more chips are at stake you don't really need to be taking down pots here. if the table were extremely tough I might lean towards c-betting, since it's going to be very difficult to get ITM, but you can virtually idle into money in the 11s.
6) queen high flops, esp. QJx or QTx, are some of the worst to c-bet on. I used to do this all the time... you figure damn I got a gutshot to broadway and two overcards, I gotta bet, but after losing probably hundreds of dollars on this I figured out that these are the kinds of flops that hit people and betting very rarely makes them go away.

compare betting this to a ten-high flop, T73 or something. obviously fewer people play tens than queens, so that's one reason to lean more towards c-betting. another reason is that there are now 4 overcards that can come to trump his hand and not 2. so even though you yourself only hit 2 of them, if you bluff with perfect frequency you end up turning a big profit when a J or Q comes on the turn/river.

btw I would check here with a little more confidence since the flush missed, both since he could put you on a busted flush draw and open up his calling range and because he could have missed it himself and your ace high will win.

so to answer your question specifically, often you can't know, if you do know it's because you have a nice read on your opponent... like say a draw got there, or say you know he'd have raised you on the turn with a hand that can call allin on the river, or say you know him to be a player that likes to call to "test" the bettor and see if you got enough marbles to fire again... and here you were privy to none of these things, so just let it go. he could have a queen here just as easily as a 8 or 6 or pocket pair.

in low stakes online tourneys, AK isnt worth raising preflop with microblinds. there are just too few different combinations of opponents hand+flop where you are really gonna get paid with AK at 10/15 with 1000 chips


not to mention that there are a ton of combinations of opponents hand+flop that are gonna take a huge portion of ur stack with that play


with those blinds, i would MUCH rather raise with a hand like a low pp or suited connectors than AK

i disagree. ak gets paid off by all sorts of crap at low stakes online tourneys. i raise it preflop, and i dont ever hold back getting it allin when i flop. plus stacks are 800 on pp. if you are playing deeper and against better opponents the solution is to raise less preflop (3-3.5x instead of 5x) and play it more passively for pot control. not raising ak gives up far too much equity at any stakes.

This is what kills me about low limit. People call you down with crap. You read & study to try to improve your game. You bet 3-5xBB preflop, you continuation bet, you check raise (maybe not here), you think, you manuever and some jackass who called your 4xBB raise with K6 from early position calls you down with his 66 to take the pot.

I just keep getting more weak/tight every day.

This is what kills me about low limit. People call you down with crap. You read & study to try to improve your game. You bet 3-5xBB preflop, you continuation bet, you check raise (maybe not here), you think, you manuever and some jackass who called your 4xBB raise with K6 from early position calls you down with his 66 to take the pot.

I just keep getting more weak/tight every day.
You need to adjust your game depending on the type of opponent you're facing. Putting moves on fish is a bad idea. The reason they are fish is because they will make critical mistakes, such as calling you down with weak hands. You must recognize this, and capitalize on it by playing straight up poker. The fish will pay you time and time again to see your better hand.