A sabermetrics look at the best batters of 2005 so far (may 21)

I've devised a way to rate the effectiveness of a batter in relation to his peers over the course of a season. I've sorted players according to four statistical categories: runs created per 27 outs, OPS, secondary average, and isolated power. I took the top 30 players from each category and then cross-referenced them and then sorted them from highest average ranking to lowest to create a good idea of which batters have been performing the best independant of their team-mates. When judging a player, don't look at RBIs and runs, as they are often subject to the performance of that player's team mates, but rather the player's ability to put himself into position to score RBIs and runs. While 5x5 fantasy doesn't care how a player gets his runs, rbis, home runs, stolen bases, and average, by looking at the stats a player has direct control over, you can tell if his fantasy stats are a fluke and/or a result of his team. This helps you forcast future production. It's like playing the odds in a hand of poker and factoring in the laws of probability.

rc27:
Runs created per 27 outs (Estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score) which is derived from the runs created statistic: [(hits + walks + hit by pitch - caught stealing - grounded into double play) * (total bases + .26[walks - intentional walks + hit by pitch] + .52[sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies + stolen bases])] divided by (at bats + walks + hit by pitches + sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies) A simple explanation of RC is that it measures a player's POTENTIAL to directly and indirectly influence runs scored by his team. It's a weighted formula based on historic means of how many runs are directly related to a certain statistic (example: if you hit a single, the historic mean says .41 runs will be scored as a result where as if you hit a home run, the historic mean says 1.42 runs will be scored as a result). The basic principle is that the player contributes to runs in three ways: advancing runners already on base, getting on base himself, and not getting an out, allowing another batter a chance to do the same. RC27 takes RC and says, "if every batter on the team were this player, this is how many runs per game the team should score." So if every player on the team were Bobby Abreu, that team should score 11.66 runs a game.

cliffs: RC27 is a good baseline for a batter's overall effectiveness

OPS:
on base percentage + slugging percentage On base percentage is a better representation of a batter's ability than batting average and slugging represents a player's ability to get extra base hits, so OPS is another good represtantion of a player's overall effectiveness. A batter's rank in rc27 and OPS should be relatively close.

SecA:
(total bases - hits + walks + stolen bases - caught stealing) divided by at bats secondary average measures a player's ability to produce extra bases outside of his batting average. It's a good way to measure power, speed, and batting eye all at the same time.

Iso:
slugging percentage - batting average Isolated power is the average number for how many of a players hits went for extra bases. It's a good indicator of a player's power.

*5x5 batter fantasy rank in parenthesis next to player's name

(rc27, OPS, secA, iso) rank avg
1. Derrek Lee (3) ChC (3, 2, 5, 3) 3.25
2. Adam Dunn (25) Cin (6, 6, 2, 1) 3.75
3. David Dellucci (47) Tex (5, 4, 1, 5) 3.75
4. Brian Roberts (1) Bal (1, 1, 9, 9) 5
5. Bobby Abreu (2) Phi (2, 5, 3, 10) 5
6. Chipper Jones (32) Atl (4, 3, 24, 3) 8.5
7. Troy Glaus (11) Ari (18, 15, 7, 2) 10.5
8. Alex Rodriguez (4) NYY (16, 10, 14, 7) 11.75
9. Albert Pujols (5) StL (7, 8, 20, 18) 13.25
10. Lyle Overbay (71) Mil (13, 11, 6, 27) 14.25
11. Jason Varitek (46) Bos (9, 9, 31, 14) 15.75
12. Tino Martinez (19) NYY (35, 18, 8, 4) 16.25
13. Mike Sweeney (24) KC (17,16, 29, 19) 20.25
14. Trot Nixon (49) Bos (10, 14, 18, 41) 20.75
15. Morgan Ensberg (59) Hou (23, 12, 25, 25) 21.25
16. Andruw Jones (21) Atl (39, 24, 21, 6) 22.5
17. Jim Edmonds (35) StL (19, 28, 13, 31) 22.75
18. Todd Helton (64) Col (12, 20, 15, 49) 24
19. David Ortiz (28) Bos (38, 27, 19, 13) 24.25
20. Miguel Cabrera (12) Fla (8, 7, 52, 32) 24.75
21. Ryan Klesko (62) SD (30, 30, 16, 23) 24.75
22. Kevin Mench (100) Tex (26, 21, 44, 11) 25.5
23. Craig Biggio (20) Hou (24, 22, 40, 22) 27
24. Reggie Sanders (53) StL (53, 32, 17, 6) 27
25. Cliff Floyd (17) NYM (40, 29, 24, 20) 28.25
26. Brian Giles (38) SD (37, 33, 10, 44) 31
27. Milton Bradley (9) LAD (25, 23, 53, 26) 31.75
28. Richie Sexson (34) Sea (62, 44, 12, 12) 32.5
29. Miguel Tejada (7) Bal (28, 19, 61, 24) 33
30. Manny Ramirez (31) Bos (61, 49, 11, 16) 34.25
31. David Wright (74) NYM (52, 31, 26, 28) 34.25
32. Carlos Delgado (51) Fla (29, 25, 48, 38) 35
33. Pat Burrell (43) Phi (33, 32, 28, 50) 35.75
34. Jay Gibbons (79) Bal (45, 38, 45, 15) 35.75
35. Gary Sheffield (15) NYY (21, 34, 28, 65) 37
36. Jeff Kent (13) LAD (54, 40, 23, 35) 38
37. Nick Johnson (41) Was (27, 26, 47, 61) 40.25
38. Luis Gonzalez (18) Ari (22, 37, 32, 79) 42.5
39. Jason Bay (50) Pit (58, 48, 36, 29) 42.75
40. Daryle Ward (81) Pit (76, 45, 33, 17) 42.75
41. Alfonso Soriano (6) Tex (61, 56, 35, 21) 43.25
42. Travis Hafner (not listed) Cle (41, 50, 27, 56) 43.5
43. Clint Barmes (8) Col (15, 13, 102, 48) 44.5
44. Paul Konerko (66) CWS (84, 80, 22, 37) 55.75
45. Craig Counsell (78) Ari (20, 54, 30, 132) 59
46. Carlos Guillen (83) Det (14, 17, 111, 107) 62.25
47. ichiro Suzuki (10) Sea (30, 52, 77, 113) 68
48. Johnny Damon (22) Bos (11, 35, 116, 137) 74.75
49. Jermaine Dye (not listed) CWS (147, 103, 81, 30) 90.25

A couple of surprises you'll notice are Adam Dunn and David Dellucci being ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, Chipper Jones ranked 6th, and Lyle Overbay being ranked 11th. How are these players being so effective yet producing little comparable fantasy production? Blame their teams and luck. The same can be said for Todd Helton, Morgan Ensberg, and Ryan Klesko among others. The reverse can be said about the players who have high fantasy scores despite lesser individual production. Milton Bradley and Miguel Tejada are beating their statistical means, for example. I'm still trying to decipher uses for this rating system, but for now it's a good indicator of which players seem to be over or under valued and who has the potential to put up better or worse fantasy statistics as the season goes along.


Here's a sorted list based on how many categories a player ranked in the top 30 in:

(rc27, OPS, secA, iso) rank avg

4 cat
Brian Roberts Bal (1, 1, 9, 9) 5
Bobby Abreu Phi (2, 5, 3, 10) 5
Derrek Lee ChC (3, 2, 5, 3) 3.25
Chipper Jones Atl (4, 3, 24, 3) 8.5
David Dellucci Tex (5, 4, 1, 5) 3.75
Adam Dunn Cin (6, 6, 2, 1) 3.75
Albert Pujols StL (7, 8, 20, 18) 13.25
Lyle Overbay Mil (13, 11, 6, 27) 14.25
Alex Rodriguez NYY (16, 10, 14, 7) 11.75
Mike Sweeney KC (17,16, 29, 19) 20.25
Troy Glaus Ari (18, 15, 7, 2) 10.5
Morgan Ensberg Hou (23, 12, 25, 25) 21.25
Ryan Klesko SD (30, 30, 16, 23) 24.75

3cat
Jason Varitek Bos (9, 9, 31, 14) 15.75
Trot Nixon Bos (10, 14, 18, 41) 20.75
Todd Helton Col (12, 20, 15, 49) 24
Jim Edmonds StL (19, 28, 13, 31) 22.75
Craig Biggio Hou (24, 22, 40, 22) 27
Milton Bradley LAD (25, 23, 53, 26) 31.75
Kevin Mench Tex (26, 21, 44, 11) 25.5
Miguel Tejada Bal (28, 19, 61, 24) 33
Tino Martinez NYY (35, 18, 8, 4) 16.25
Andruw Jones Atl (39, 24, 21, 6) 22.5
David Ortiz Bos (38, 27, 19, 13) 24.25
Cliff Floyd NYM (40, 29, 24, 20) 28.25

2cat
Miguel Cabrera Fla (8, 7, 52, 32) 24.75
Carlos Guillen Det (14, 17, 111, 107) 62.25
Clint Barmes Col (15, 13, 102, 48) 44.5
Gary Sheffield NYY (21, 34, 28, 65) 37
Nick Johnson Was (27, 26, 47, 61) 40.25
Carlos Delgado Fla (29, 25, 48, 38) 35
Manny Ramirez Bos (61, 49, 11, 16) 34.25
Richie Sexson Sea (62, 44, 12, 12) 32.5
David Wright NYM (52, 31, 26, 28) 34.25
Reggie Sanders StL (53, 32, 17, 6) 27
Craig Counsell Ari (20, 54, 30, 132) 59

1cat
Johnny Damon Bos (11, 35, 116, 137) 74.75
Luis Gonzalez Ari (22, 37, 32, 79) 42.5
Ichiro Suzuki Sea (30, 52, 77, 113) 68
Brian Giles SD (37, 33, 10, 44) 31
Paul Konerko CWS (84, 80, 22, 37) 55.75
Jeff Kent LAD (54, 40, 23, 35) 38
Travis Hafner Cle (41, 50, 27, 56) 43.5
Jay Gibbons Bal (45, 38, 45, 15) 35.75
Pat Burrell Phi (33, 32, 28, 50) 35.75
Daryle Ward Pit (76, 45, 33, 17) 42.75
Alfonso Soriano Tex (61, 56, 35, 21) 43.25
Jason Bay Pit (58, 48, 36, 29) 42.75
Jermaine Dye CWS (147, 103, 81, 30) 90.25

Dellucci jumped from 47th to 31st highest rated fantasy batter over the weekend, after going 6/8 batting w/ 4 runs, 2 HRs and 2 RBIs :)

In my ratings, he jumped to #2 in RC27, #1 in OPS, #2 in isolated power, #1 in secondary avg...

wtf that means he's the best hitter in baseball right now and he's only owned in 70% of leagues. It also means his rise in fantasy standings probably won't go down because of how well he's performing as an individual.

except he cant bat lefties and is held out against left handed pitchers

this is pretty neat. seems like alot of work, gj. do you have a job with this stuff or are you that hardcore? :o

thx tho