Ron Paul polls 10% in Iowa... only 4 points behind Giuliani

R

-raven-

Veteran X
American Research Group

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-raven- said:
Well, he might want to start climbing in the polls there sometime soon, then.

By the way, southern NH has been invaded by liberal massholes and NH isn't the beacon of libertarianism that it once was.
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What matters is voter turn-out.

The fact that polling is showing he's in double digits is alone worthy of attention.

I believe the voter turnout was fairly low in 2004 for the GOP (duh) but was in the range of 300,000 in 2004 for dems (and has been increasing the last few elections).

That means you could potentially win with like 75,000 people. If we were to believe this poll, it means he has about 30,000 people right now.

Consider how polls are done to examine "likely voter" turnout. They assume general trends and rates of turn-out based on the past.

New Hampshire - 2004 primary - voter turnout by age
18-29 14%
30-44 30%
45-64 45%
65+ 11%

Notice that the majority of traditional primary voters are basically 45+. I don't have the stats to back it up, but i suspect Ron Paul's major demographic right now are:

1. age 18-35 voters
2. alienated voters who dont usually vote

Thus, by definition, if the Paultards turn out in force... it will be at rates higher than the polling will indicate. Until we see "exit poll" data, i wouldnt even begin to guess where he will land in a state like New Hampshire.

If all the college students flock to vote... look out.

NH has a registration due date coming up soon. If folks are registering by the TENS of thousands in the coming 2 weeks then we could an early sign of a major surprise.

I dont expect him to win but who knows. NH is a state he could do VERY well in.

It comes down to turn-out.
 
Automatic Jack said:
It's about time the GOPers noticed they don't have a party anymore.
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If he does VERY well in Iowa or New Hampshire... the entire party will go into convulsions and have to adapt to the reality that instead of pandering to the religious-right... they need instead to address the large numbers of people who are sick of the spending, sick of big government, sick of hypocrisy, sick of imperial foreign policy, etc.

That would be a healthy thing.

Paul knows he wont win. He doesnt care. He's trying to change america.
 
The GOP candidates aren't interesting at all to me, because they are all insane and can't possibly* win.

If we don't get Obama, we're screwed.




*I know, it's technically practically a coin toss, even though they are so weak.
 
Dumpy Dooby said:
If he wins the primary polls or receives the most amount of delegates, I will probably keep pushing for him. In that scenario, he's likely to run as an independent.
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He's going to win most of the states and receive the most delegates, then the GOP wont nominate him? Is that what you are predicting?
 
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