Ride the housing rollercoaster!

KoPoT

Veteran X
I found this video of Yale economist Robert Shiller's chart of housing prices converted to a roller coaster ride pretty interesting. For me, there is really no way I'll be entering the real estate market anytime soon with the news that has been coming out in the last month about sub-prime lending, skyrocketing foreclosures and decreasing prices across many markets. Who else is gonna hold out for prices to come down 30-50%?


Ride the housing roller coaster! - BloggingStocks

Robert Shiller's Chart: http://www.speculativebubble.com/images/homevalues1.gif
 
Okay, but what about the fact that this is the largest housing boom ever to be recorded in history? If history has proven anything, it is that what goes up must come down. How can values this high be sustained when average incomes have recorded very modest gains over the last 50 years?
 
They can't, and there will be an adjustment, but if you think it'll be 30-50% of present value, you're delusional.
 
Actually, I think there is a possibility it could be higher in some markets. Am I saying this will happen overnight? No. Over the next 5+ years, possibly.
 
It's currently 7% in Phoenix which had one of the largest booms ever in the last 5 years. It's a full buyers market right now and 7% is all you get. It might not sound like a lot but that means a 500k house is now 465k. That's a shit ton difference.
 
im hoping in summer of 2008 that I can get more house than I can now. we're moving from Cincinnati, where housing has historically been stable...to Chicago where it is volatile. I just dont want to have to pay $500K for the equivalent of my 190K house here. is what it is though.
 
Okay, but what about the fact that this is the largest housing boom ever to be recorded in history? If history has proven anything, it is that what goes up must come down. How can values this high be sustained when average incomes have recorded very modest gains over the last 50 years?



It's called debt.
 
Yes, and what happens when people can't pay that debt back thanks to increasing interest rates, adjustable rate mortages, falling home values, less buyers?
 
I found this video of Yale economist Robert Shiller's chart of housing prices converted to a roller coaster ride pretty interesting. For me, there is really no way I'll be entering the real estate market anytime soon with the news that has been coming out in the last month about sub-prime lending, skyrocketing foreclosures and decreasing prices across many markets. Who else is gonna hold out for prices to come down 30-50%?


Ride the housing roller coaster! - BloggingStocks

Robert Shiller's Chart: http://www.speculativebubble.com/images/homevalues1.gif


HAHAHAHAHA

yaaaaaaaaaaah ... why don't you wait till real estate drops 30-50%... THEN buy a house...
 
btw it would take a stock market collapse... not crash... collapse... the dollar would have to be devalued at least 20 if not 40% and you would have NO job and NO money... and what little money you did have wouldn't buy you shit if real estate dropped 30-50%...

basically what i'm saying is... it aint gonna happen... why? like it or not america is still the best country to live in on earth and everyone knows that
 
Okay, but what about the fact that this is the largest housing boom ever to be recorded in history? If history has proven anything, it is that what goes up must come down. How can values this high be sustained when average incomes have recorded very modest gains over the last 50 years?
The "boom" can be accredited to inflation and easy money. You can thank Alan Greenspan and his 1% interest rates in the past. He pumped way too much money into the economy, trying to over-correct for his excessive tightening in the years prior. This pushed the national median home price above the median income level, making homes unaffordable, on average.

Now, we are seeing a FED chairman who knows what he is doing, and is trying to contain inflation in the 1-2% range. Problem is, the economic-illiterate dems are pushing for easy money and higher taxes, like always, and keep thinking Bernanke is going to lower rates. This is not the case, you can expect the next rate move to be up, not down. This is based on 6 economic indicators that are largely observed by a smart Fed chairman. Last Wednesday's grilling he took from Congress pissed him off IMO. The questions were absolutely retarded, asking for more transparency etc. They basically want to know where interest rates will be going before the Fed even meets.

The market is just making a healthy correction to Greenspan's mess. Sub-prime lending has been going on for decades. It won't spill over into any prime+ lending or other sectors of the economy. That news will go away soon. Mortgage rates are at an all time low. Home prices are declining slightly, but I can gurandamntee you that you won't see a 30-50% price drop anywhere, except maybe in some condo\townhouse markets. Inventories are high, and of course it is a buyer's market. Flippers are crazy to do anything right now, as now is a good time for first time home buyers and investors who plan on renting out. We will see rent prices shift slightly upward in most areas of the country, as well.

Just my $.02
 
Yes, and what happens when people can't pay that debt back thanks to increasing interest rates, adjustable rate mortgages, falling home values, less buyers?

increasing rates, rates are still VERY low if look back over the past 15 years, ARMS aren't the problem its the people who wanted to keep up with the Jones's and the speculators are the ones who are causing this decline, but hey it's the American way to want what you cant afford. There is a mortgage industry newsletter we get here at the office that was talking about how over the past 5 years, ARMs have only accounted for less then 30% of the market, so you have another 70% whose rates aren't changing.

As for falling home prices and less buyers.. it really depends on what part of the country you are in, here in Texas our housing market is as strong as its been in decades, we aren't seeing the declines that California and Florida are.
People are always going to buy homes
 
Yes, and what happens when people can't pay that debt back thanks to increasing interest rates, adjustable rate mortages, falling home values, less buyers?
You won't see interest rates fall from here, only go up. They are at a low for the year. How does falling home values create less buyers? Maybe less investors, but not real buyers.
 
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