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Who Replied?I might, the top 5 isn't very insightful especially on UConn and Texas, and its in 6 tabs.
here's the other one
Horns usually dominate, but can be exposedBy Ken Pomeroy
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive
Outstanding college basketball teams can be defined by their results. When they win, it is often by a big margin. And in their rare losses, the score isn't lopsided.
That is why there is some doubt as to whether Texas, coming off a 21-point loss to Oklahoma State on Sunday, is an outstanding team. While the Longhorns only have four losses, each was by double digits, and the one striking thing about the Longhorns this season is their defense's tendency to be absent for long stretches. Unfortunately for them, those stretches have sometimes been 40 minutes long.
The most recent example is the game against the Cowboys. Texas surrendered 81 points on 65 possessions. The resulting defensive efficiency of 124.6 (points per 100 possessions) is about as poorly as a top-notch defense can play. This has been the problem in all of the Horns' losses. Duke, Tennessee and Oklahoma each posted an offensive efficiency north of 120 in their double-digit wins over Texas.
The difference in defensive efficiency in Texas' wins and losses is stunning:
Place table heading here
OFF. EFFICIENCY DEF. EFFICIENCY
Four losses 102.5 131.8
22 wins 116.3 79.1
Even the best defenses have an off night every once in a while, due either to their own poor play or to a hot-shooting opponent. But the Texas defense is on a different level when it comes to looking bad.
Let's compare Texas to Kansas. The Jayhawks currently top the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and happen to be the Longhorns' opponent on Saturday in a game that could decide the Big 12 regular-season title. The Jayhawks' worst defensive game was against Saint Joseph's, which posted a 111.5 offensive efficiency. At its worst, Kansas hasn't been nearly as bad as Texas.
Let's put the defensive difference in perspective. Giving Texas' opponents 68 possessions, roughly the average in a Texas game, the defensive efficiency in the wins allows 54 points per game. The alter ego of Texas' defense allows 89 points per game. And with that, you can see why the good Texas D nearly guarantees victory, while the bad one ensures defeat.
True, the level of competition in the two sets of games isn't exactly equal. The defensive stats in those wins were partially piled up in games against the likes of Prairie View and Texas-Arlington. But Texas also has shut down Memphis (held to an offensive efficiency of 71.4), Villanova (83.2) and Colorado (84.4). Nothing illustrates Texas' bizarre defensive behavior more than the fact that in its first meeting with Oklahoma State, the Cowboys' offensive efficiency was a microscopic 68.1. Texas won that game 80-46.
So we have established that even though Texas owns one of the best defenses in the nation, it is subject to stunning lapses. Let's now try to satisfy our (or at least my) curiosity and try to find the cause of the Longhorns' occasional defensive failures.
When the losses and wins are broken down into their defensive components, some interesting things surface. In some areas, there isn't much statistical difference between the two groups. Opponents have grabbed offensive boards about equally in the losses and wins, and they have actually committed more turnovers per possession in the losses, which might be a minor point, but one to keep in mind: The Longhorns' ability to force turnovers has mattered little to their defensive efficiency.
The root cause of the poor defense, though, is that opponents have shot extremely well. Here's what Texas' opponents have done against the Horns this season:
Opponents sometimes find the stroke
22 WINS 4 LOSSES
eFG% * 40.0% 60.6%
2-pt FG% 38.1% 54.7%
3-pt FG% 28.9% 47.6%
FT% 66.2% 85.1%
FTA/FGA .240 .375
* eFG% = effective FG% (accounting for the added value of 3s)
In Texas' losses, opponents have shot both 3-pointers and 2-pointers much better, and Texas can't even catch a break in the free-throw department. It's the Longhorns' own fault that they send the opposition to the line much more often in the losses, but opponents compound that flaw by being especially accurate on their free throws.
Of course, we didn't need a sophisticated statistical analysis to discover that Texas would be better off by preventing its opponents from making shots. Every defense can be more effective doing that. But one thing unique to the Longhorns is that they don't mind if their opponents shoot a lot of 3s.
Texas' opponents have scored 32.5 percent of their points on 3-pointers. That's the 32nd-highest total in the country. Great defensive teams typically do not allow their opponents to shoot many 3s. And while Texas is largely successful with this approach, they have been burned badly when opposing shooters have gotten hot.
First, there was J.J. Redick, who had the 41-point game which officially made him a player of the year front-runner. Redick made 9 of 16 3s in that one -- and set a season high in attempts. In the Longhorns' next loss, Tennessee's Chris Lofton went 5-for-9 from long range. Oklahoma's Michael Neal made 4 of 8 bombs in the Sooners' win.
Again, though, one can look at Texas' high-profile wins and see that opposing shooters can also have nightmarish games. Villanova's Allan Ray went 4-for-20 from the field and 3-for-14 from 3. Texas held Colorado's Richard Roby to 14 points on 3-for-13 shooting. Memphis' Rodney Carney went 3-for-14 on 3s.
Let's be clear: Texas has a great defense. But it also has an obvious, if difficult to exploit, weakness. As long as the Horns allow a lot of 3-point attempts, they will be occasionally susceptible to a hot-shooting opponent that makes their tough D look ineffective. And that makes a potentially outstanding Texas team beatable.
Ken Pomeroy is the founder of kenpom.com and is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.
here's the other one
Horns usually dominate, but can be exposedBy Ken Pomeroy
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive
Outstanding college basketball teams can be defined by their results. When they win, it is often by a big margin. And in their rare losses, the score isn't lopsided.
That is why there is some doubt as to whether Texas, coming off a 21-point loss to Oklahoma State on Sunday, is an outstanding team. While the Longhorns only have four losses, each was by double digits, and the one striking thing about the Longhorns this season is their defense's tendency to be absent for long stretches. Unfortunately for them, those stretches have sometimes been 40 minutes long.
The most recent example is the game against the Cowboys. Texas surrendered 81 points on 65 possessions. The resulting defensive efficiency of 124.6 (points per 100 possessions) is about as poorly as a top-notch defense can play. This has been the problem in all of the Horns' losses. Duke, Tennessee and Oklahoma each posted an offensive efficiency north of 120 in their double-digit wins over Texas.
The difference in defensive efficiency in Texas' wins and losses is stunning:
Place table heading here
OFF. EFFICIENCY DEF. EFFICIENCY
Four losses 102.5 131.8
22 wins 116.3 79.1
Even the best defenses have an off night every once in a while, due either to their own poor play or to a hot-shooting opponent. But the Texas defense is on a different level when it comes to looking bad.
Let's compare Texas to Kansas. The Jayhawks currently top the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and happen to be the Longhorns' opponent on Saturday in a game that could decide the Big 12 regular-season title. The Jayhawks' worst defensive game was against Saint Joseph's, which posted a 111.5 offensive efficiency. At its worst, Kansas hasn't been nearly as bad as Texas.
Let's put the defensive difference in perspective. Giving Texas' opponents 68 possessions, roughly the average in a Texas game, the defensive efficiency in the wins allows 54 points per game. The alter ego of Texas' defense allows 89 points per game. And with that, you can see why the good Texas D nearly guarantees victory, while the bad one ensures defeat.
True, the level of competition in the two sets of games isn't exactly equal. The defensive stats in those wins were partially piled up in games against the likes of Prairie View and Texas-Arlington. But Texas also has shut down Memphis (held to an offensive efficiency of 71.4), Villanova (83.2) and Colorado (84.4). Nothing illustrates Texas' bizarre defensive behavior more than the fact that in its first meeting with Oklahoma State, the Cowboys' offensive efficiency was a microscopic 68.1. Texas won that game 80-46.
So we have established that even though Texas owns one of the best defenses in the nation, it is subject to stunning lapses. Let's now try to satisfy our (or at least my) curiosity and try to find the cause of the Longhorns' occasional defensive failures.
When the losses and wins are broken down into their defensive components, some interesting things surface. In some areas, there isn't much statistical difference between the two groups. Opponents have grabbed offensive boards about equally in the losses and wins, and they have actually committed more turnovers per possession in the losses, which might be a minor point, but one to keep in mind: The Longhorns' ability to force turnovers has mattered little to their defensive efficiency.
The root cause of the poor defense, though, is that opponents have shot extremely well. Here's what Texas' opponents have done against the Horns this season:
Opponents sometimes find the stroke
22 WINS 4 LOSSES
eFG% * 40.0% 60.6%
2-pt FG% 38.1% 54.7%
3-pt FG% 28.9% 47.6%
FT% 66.2% 85.1%
FTA/FGA .240 .375
* eFG% = effective FG% (accounting for the added value of 3s)
In Texas' losses, opponents have shot both 3-pointers and 2-pointers much better, and Texas can't even catch a break in the free-throw department. It's the Longhorns' own fault that they send the opposition to the line much more often in the losses, but opponents compound that flaw by being especially accurate on their free throws.
Of course, we didn't need a sophisticated statistical analysis to discover that Texas would be better off by preventing its opponents from making shots. Every defense can be more effective doing that. But one thing unique to the Longhorns is that they don't mind if their opponents shoot a lot of 3s.
Texas' opponents have scored 32.5 percent of their points on 3-pointers. That's the 32nd-highest total in the country. Great defensive teams typically do not allow their opponents to shoot many 3s. And while Texas is largely successful with this approach, they have been burned badly when opposing shooters have gotten hot.
First, there was J.J. Redick, who had the 41-point game which officially made him a player of the year front-runner. Redick made 9 of 16 3s in that one -- and set a season high in attempts. In the Longhorns' next loss, Tennessee's Chris Lofton went 5-for-9 from long range. Oklahoma's Michael Neal made 4 of 8 bombs in the Sooners' win.
Again, though, one can look at Texas' high-profile wins and see that opposing shooters can also have nightmarish games. Villanova's Allan Ray went 4-for-20 from the field and 3-for-14 from 3. Texas held Colorado's Richard Roby to 14 points on 3-for-13 shooting. Memphis' Rodney Carney went 3-for-14 on 3s.
Let's be clear: Texas has a great defense. But it also has an obvious, if difficult to exploit, weakness. As long as the Horns allow a lot of 3-point attempts, they will be occasionally susceptible to a hot-shooting opponent that makes their tough D look ineffective. And that makes a potentially outstanding Texas team beatable.
Ken Pomeroy is the founder of kenpom.com and is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider.
Possible fatal flaws: Inexperienced point guard, lack of diverse scoring options, team speed
Overview: Yes, Mike Bibby has won an NCAA title. Yes, Bobby Hurley has taken his team to a national title game. And even though I would put Greg Paulus in the same realm as Hurley (as a passer), I am not bold enough to say he is nearly the talent athletically that Hurley was as a freshman. So how will Paulus match up with bigger, stronger, older guards who have seen 20 films on Duke and know a lot more about what he does than vice versa?
At the end of the day, decision making from your backcourt is the most important element in NCAA Tournament survival. Case in point: Senior PG Daniel Ewing suddenly reverted to his old form last year against Michigan State and the Spartans seemed to physically intimidate Ewing and J.J. Redick at times as they took down the Devils.
Also, Duke tends to be a two-trick pony on offense, and -- as we've seen against Georgetown -- when Shelden Williams doesn't show up, the Dookies are left to watch Redick carry the entire load. On the other hand, we sometimes forget that Memphis virtually locked down Redick in the second half and nearly beat the Devils in the NIT Season Tip-Off at MSG earlier this season.
To beat Duke, stop Shelden, limit J.J.'s quality looks and force one of Melchionni, Nelson, McRoberts and Paulus to go for 20. If one of them gets his 20, tip your cap and congratulate Coach K on another win. Don't under any circumstances, though, let anyone believe that is Duke's strength.
Duke also can be exposed defensively because of its lack of team speed. If we remember Georgetown, it's not just the Princeton offense that created the creases for the backcuts and the penetration. It was the speed with which those backcuts were made. Memphis similarly exposed various mismatches on the floor with Duke's continuing desire to play strictly man-to-man pressure defense.
The Blue Devils are going to play one way. They will pressure every pass. They will pressure the ball. They will dare you to penetrate with backdoor cuts or off the dribble. If you have a team that can shoot the ball and make Duke continue to play this way, its lack of team speed can be exposed.
Other teams that could beat Duke: West Virginia, Michigan State, Florida, Tennessee.
Overview: Yes, Mike Bibby has won an NCAA title. Yes, Bobby Hurley has taken his team to a national title game. And even though I would put Greg Paulus in the same realm as Hurley (as a passer), I am not bold enough to say he is nearly the talent athletically that Hurley was as a freshman. So how will Paulus match up with bigger, stronger, older guards who have seen 20 films on Duke and know a lot more about what he does than vice versa?
At the end of the day, decision making from your backcourt is the most important element in NCAA Tournament survival. Case in point: Senior PG Daniel Ewing suddenly reverted to his old form last year against Michigan State and the Spartans seemed to physically intimidate Ewing and J.J. Redick at times as they took down the Devils.
Also, Duke tends to be a two-trick pony on offense, and -- as we've seen against Georgetown -- when Shelden Williams doesn't show up, the Dookies are left to watch Redick carry the entire load. On the other hand, we sometimes forget that Memphis virtually locked down Redick in the second half and nearly beat the Devils in the NIT Season Tip-Off at MSG earlier this season.
To beat Duke, stop Shelden, limit J.J.'s quality looks and force one of Melchionni, Nelson, McRoberts and Paulus to go for 20. If one of them gets his 20, tip your cap and congratulate Coach K on another win. Don't under any circumstances, though, let anyone believe that is Duke's strength.
Duke also can be exposed defensively because of its lack of team speed. If we remember Georgetown, it's not just the Princeton offense that created the creases for the backcuts and the penetration. It was the speed with which those backcuts were made. Memphis similarly exposed various mismatches on the floor with Duke's continuing desire to play strictly man-to-man pressure defense.
The Blue Devils are going to play one way. They will pressure every pass. They will pressure the ball. They will dare you to penetrate with backdoor cuts or off the dribble. If you have a team that can shoot the ball and make Duke continue to play this way, its lack of team speed can be exposed.
Other teams that could beat Duke: West Virginia, Michigan State, Florida, Tennessee.
Possible fatal flaws: Focus, ballhandling against pressure, free-throw shooting
Overview: The Huskies are the biggest and best team in the nation, and I think UConn will cut the nets down in Indianapolis. However, it is not a done deal. UConn can get clipped.
The Huskies have great size, but can be spread out. If you draw UConn's big guys out on the floor, you can drive on them and force help-and-recover situations.
UConn also does not have great ballhandling ability. Aside from Marcus Williams and Craig Austrie, there are few handlers on the floor, so UConn can be susceptible to pressure -- especially full-court pressure with good back flow and back tips.
Additionally, the Huskies are not a great free-throw shooting team. If you can get into a battle with them at the foul line, you can have success.
UConn is great in transition, but not always great in transition defense. I think you can run the Huskies and get some easy scores. You have to be physical with Williams, Rashad Anderson and Rudy Gay -- especially Gay. If you allow Gay to get started early, he can go off on you. If you limit him early, he may settle for less.
Lastly, UConn tends to play to the perceived level of its competition. The Huskies know they are good, and tend to turn it on and off. Come tournament time, I expect the Huskies to be focused, but loss of focus can be the end of the line for UConn.
Other teams that can beat UConn: West Virginia, NC State, LSU.
Overview: The Huskies are the biggest and best team in the nation, and I think UConn will cut the nets down in Indianapolis. However, it is not a done deal. UConn can get clipped.
The Huskies have great size, but can be spread out. If you draw UConn's big guys out on the floor, you can drive on them and force help-and-recover situations.
UConn also does not have great ballhandling ability. Aside from Marcus Williams and Craig Austrie, there are few handlers on the floor, so UConn can be susceptible to pressure -- especially full-court pressure with good back flow and back tips.
Additionally, the Huskies are not a great free-throw shooting team. If you can get into a battle with them at the foul line, you can have success.
UConn is great in transition, but not always great in transition defense. I think you can run the Huskies and get some easy scores. You have to be physical with Williams, Rashad Anderson and Rudy Gay -- especially Gay. If you allow Gay to get started early, he can go off on you. If you limit him early, he may settle for less.
Lastly, UConn tends to play to the perceived level of its competition. The Huskies know they are good, and tend to turn it on and off. Come tournament time, I expect the Huskies to be focused, but loss of focus can be the end of the line for UConn.
Other teams that can beat UConn: West Virginia, NC State, LSU.