The Microsoft Corporation plans to announce today at the Tokyo Game Show that it will begin selling the Xbox 360, its new video game console, on Nov. 22.
The release of the console will be the start of the transition to the next generation of game consoles from the top competitors in that market - Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo.
Video game industry analysts said it was too soon to tell how much benefit Microsoft would gain by being the first out of the gate. Sony plans to release PlayStation 3 next spring, and Nintendo has not given a release date for its next console.
Still, several analysts said that Microsoft should enjoy strong demand, particularly among hard-core game players, which could give Xbox 360 a lead in the marketing wars against Sony's PlayStation 2, the best-selling game console to date.
When Sony introduced the PlayStation 2 in North America in November 2000, it sold 1.1 million consoles over the holiday season, said Evan Wilson, an industry analyst with Pacific Crest Securities. Mr. Wilson said it was possible for Microsoft to sell 1.5 million consoles in North America during the coming holiday season.
"The demand," he said, "is higher at this point than people were expecting." He said that specialty video game retailers, like Electronics Boutique, told analysts that they had already sold out their allotment to consumers through advance orders.
But the optimistic projections are based on guesses of how many consoles Microsoft will have available worldwide during the holiday season. Xbox will be available in Europe on Dec. 2 and in Japan on Dec. 10.
The company said previously it planned to sell a base model for $299 and a premium version for $399, which is to include a wireless controller and high-definition television connectors intended to appeal to enthusiasts.
Michael Pachter, a video game industry analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, however, said he would not be surprised if Microsoft had only two million consoles ready to ship to retailers worldwide, reducing sales projections.
"They'll be supply-constrained," Mr. Pachter said, noting that Microsoft did not announce the names of its manufacturing partners until August.
In an interview yesterday, Mitch Koch, head of retail sales for Microsoft, declined to say how many consoles Microsoft planned to have available. He did say that production of final Xbox 360 consoles has begun, but would not say precisely when it had started.
Mr. Koch said he expected that during the holiday season, 25 to 40 new video games would be available for the Xbox 360, a figure that analysts said was optimistic. That number is considered a significant measure of potential console sales because the more games available, the more reasons for consumers to buy a new machine.
When Microsoft broke into the game console business in October 2001, with the first Xbox, there were only five games available, and two of them were made by Microsoft, said Anita Frazier, an analyst with NPD Funworld, a market research firm. When the PlayStation 2 arrived, she said, it was accompanied by 28 games.
The growth of interest in Xbox 360 evident among the makers of video games shows that Microsoft "has proven itself as a player in the industry," Ms. Frazier said.
Ms. Frazier said that in the United States, consumers have purchased 30 million PlayStation 2 units, 13 million Xbox units and 10 million Nintendo GameCube units. The crucial question for Microsoft is whether it can break into Sony's market share.
Paul-Jon McNealy, a video game industry analyst with American Technology Research, said that Microsoft's release of the console before its competitors does not ensure that it will win market share. Still, he said, "the prospects are better than if they were launching a year from now."
...add that to the long list of crap I need to get money for, and a job...
